Toluca
vs
Monterrey
Garuda Lions Prediction: Toluca
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.46.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Toluca is the favourite, not a value bet.
Toluca vs Monterrey overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Toluca vs Monterrey
| Probability | Toluca | Draw | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.2% | 21.9% | 24.0% |
| Market | 58.4% | 21.6% | 20.0% |
| Final | 57.3% | 21.7% | 21.0% |
| Edge | -1.1% | +0.1% | +1.0% |
Why Toluca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.46.
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.3% per unit staked (our 57.3% × 1.67 − 1).
Toluca vs Monterrey match preview
Toluca faces Monterrey in an upcoming Liga MX match with a probability of 55% for a Toluca win, while a draw stands at 22% and Monterrey at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Toluca, with an expected goals tally of 2.22 for Toluca and 1.45 for Monterrey. Notably, there is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% likelihood that both teams will score.
Recent form shows Toluca struggling with four draws and a loss in their last six matches, while Monterrey has had a mixed run with two wins, two draws, and two losses. In their last ten encounters, Toluca has secured six victories compared to Monterrey's two, indicating a favorable historical performance for Toluca.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Toluca and Monterrey expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.68
Toluca and Monterrey attack and defence ratings
Toluca
Monterrey
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 16 fixtures
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- Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna
- Atlas vs CF Pachuca — team news & stats
- Tigres UANL v Cruz Azul — match page
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Club America — match page
- Club Queretaro vs Puebla — team news & stats
- Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas
Before and after this match
Toluca vs Monterrey markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 57.3% | 1.74 | -1.1% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.0% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.8% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 57.3% |
| Draw | 21.7% | |
| Monterrey | 21.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% |
| No | 30.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win | 33.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 45.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.1% |
| 1-1 | 9.0% | |
| 3-1 | 6.7% |
Toluca vs Monterrey stats
Toluca and Monterrey recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Toluca and Monterrey season so far
Toluca record
- They have won 6 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Monterrey record
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toluca vs Monterrey head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Monterrey | Toluca | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Toluca | Monterrey | Leagues Cup | 2-0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Monterrey | Toluca | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-07 | Toluca | Monterrey | Liga MX | 3-2 |
| 2025-12-04 | Monterrey | Toluca | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-25 | Toluca | Monterrey | Liga MX | 6-2 |
| 2025-05-11 | Toluca | Monterrey | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-08 | Monterrey | Toluca | Liga MX | 3-2 |
| 2025-01-19 | Toluca | Monterrey | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-01 | Monterrey | Toluca | Liga MX | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Toluca vs Monterrey odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.4%, draw 21.6%, away 20.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.58 | 4.33 | 4.62 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 4.20 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 4.33 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 4.55 | 4.85 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.33 | 4.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.61 | 4.50 | 4.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.61 | 4.25 | 4.35 |
| Pinnacle | 1.61 | 4.55 | 4.97 |
| SBO | 1.55 | 3.89 | 4.08 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 3.90 | 4.33 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .