Club America
vs
Toluca
Garuda Lions Prediction: Club America
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 1.85.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Club America vs Toluca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Club America vs Toluca
| Probability | Club America | Draw | Toluca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.6% | 20.2% | 28.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 51.6% | 20.2% | 28.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Club America
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 1.85.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Club America vs Toluca match preview
Club America enters this match with a 56% probability of winning, while Toluca has a 25% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Club America, which has an expected goals figure of 2.69 compared to Toluca's 1.81. Both teams are expected to score in 78% of scenarios, and there is an 83% likelihood of more than 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
In terms of recent form, Club America has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Toluca has struggled with three draws and two losses in the same timeframe. The head-to-head record shows each team has won once in their last two encounters, indicating a competitive matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Club America and Toluca expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.34
Club America and Toluca attack and defence ratings
Club America
Toluca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Club America vs Toluca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club America | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.8% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 79.8% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.4% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club America | 51.6% |
| Draw | 20.2% | |
| Toluca | 28.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.9% |
| No | 22.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Club America win | 33.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 48.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.5% |
| 2-2 | 6.9% | |
| 1-1 | 6.6% |
Club America vs Toluca stats
Club America and Toluca recent form
| Club America |
LWWDWD |
| Toluca |
DDDLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Club America and Toluca season so far
Club America record
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Toluca record
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Club America vs Toluca head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Club America | Toluca | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Toluca | Club America | Liga MX | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.