Monterrey
vs
Club Tijuana
Garuda Lions Prediction: Monterrey
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.25.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Monterrey vs Club Tijuana overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Monterrey vs Club Tijuana
| Probability | Monterrey | Draw | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.2% | 25.7% | 26.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 48.2% | 25.7% | 26.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Monterrey
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Monterrey vs Club Tijuana match preview
Monterrey enters this match with a 54% probability of winning, while Club Tijuana has a 21% chance of securing victory, and a draw is assessed at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Monterrey, with an expected goals tally of 1.80 for Monterrey and 1.06 for Club Tijuana. Additionally, there is a 55% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Monterrey has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Conversely, Club Tijuana has struggled, managing only two draws and three losses in their recent outings. The last two encounters between these teams have ended in two draws, highlighting a competitive dynamic. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Monterrey and Club Tijuana expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
Monterrey and Club Tijuana attack and defence ratings
Monterrey
Club Tijuana
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Monterrey vs Club Tijuana markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monterrey | 48.2% | 2.08 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monterrey | 48.2% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Club Tijuana | 26.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.9% |
| No | 40.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Monterrey win | 26.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 51.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 7.7% |
Monterrey vs Club Tijuana stats
Monterrey and Club Tijuana recent form
| Monterrey |
LWWDLW |
| Club Tijuana |
WDDDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Monterrey and Club Tijuana season so far
Monterrey record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club Tijuana record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
Monterrey vs Club Tijuana head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Monterrey | Club Tijuana | Liga MX | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-06 | Club Tijuana | Monterrey | Liga MX | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.