Puebla
vs
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Puebla
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Puebla vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Puebla vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
| Probability | Puebla | Draw | U.N.A.M. - Pumas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.4% | 28.3% | 34.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 37.4% | 28.3% | 34.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Puebla vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas match preview
Puebla faces U.N.A.M. - Pumas in a Liga MX matchup with both teams struggling for form. Puebla's recent record shows one win in their last six matches (L-D-D-L-D-L), while U.N.A.M. - Pumas has fared slightly better with one win in their last six as well (L-W-D-L-D-L). The model predicts a close contest, assigning Puebla a 37% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 34% chance for U.N.A.M. - Pumas.
The expected goals are closely matched, with Puebla at 1.38 and U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 1.31. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Puebla, occurring with an 8% probability. Additionally, there is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% likelihood that both teams will score during the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Puebla and U.N.A.M. - Pumas expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.69
Puebla and U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack and defence ratings
Puebla
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Puebla vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Puebla | 37.4% | 2.67 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Puebla | 37.4% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 34.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.9% |
| No | 44.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Puebla win | 17.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 62.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 1-0 | 8.1% |
Puebla vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas stats
Puebla and U.N.A.M. - Pumas recent form
| Puebla |
LDDLDL |
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas |
LWDLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Puebla and U.N.A.M. - Pumas season so far
Puebla record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Puebla vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Puebla | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX | 2-3 |
| 2025-08-24 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Puebla | Liga MX | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.