Atlas
vs
Puebla
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atlas
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.14.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Atlas is the favourite, not a value bet.
Atlas vs Puebla overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atlas vs Puebla
| Probability | Atlas | Draw | Puebla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.6% | 23.8% | 20.6% |
| Market | 55.0% | 25.1% | 19.8% |
| Final | 55.2% | 24.8% | 20.0% |
| Edge | +0.1% | -0.3% | +0.2% |
Why Atlas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.4% per unit staked (our 55.2% × 1.75 − 1).
Atlas vs Puebla match preview
Atlas hosts Puebla in this Liga MX matchup with a probability of 52% for Atlas to win, while a draw stands at 26% and Puebla at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 1.96 for Atlas and 1.13 for Puebla. The model also indicates a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% likelihood that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Atlas has recorded a mix of results with L-W-D-W-D-L, while Puebla has struggled, managing L-D-D-L-D-L in their last six matches. Historically, Atlas has dominated the head-to-head encounters, winning both of the last two meetings against Puebla without conceding. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atlas and Puebla expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.10
Atlas and Puebla attack and defence ratings
Atlas
Puebla
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
- Necaxa v FC Juarez — match page
- Atlante FC vs Atletico San Luis — team news & stats
- Leon vs Toluca
- Monterrey v Guadalajara Chivas — match page
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL — team news & stats
- Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul — team news & stats
- Club America v CF Pachuca — match page
- Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna
Before and after this match
Atlas vs Puebla markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlas | 55.2% | 1.81 | +0.1% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.4% | 2.25 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlas | 55.2% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Puebla | 20.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.4% |
| No | 40.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atlas win | 33.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 44.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 8.7% |
Atlas vs Puebla stats
Atlas and Puebla recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atlas and Puebla season so far
Atlas record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Puebla record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
Atlas vs Puebla head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | Atlas | Puebla | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Puebla | Atlas | Liga MX | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atlas vs Puebla odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.9%, draw 25.1%, away 20.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.69 | 3.65 | 4.69 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.70 | 4.70 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.75 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.67 | 3.65 | 4.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69 | 3.90 | 4.85 |
| SBO | 1.72 | 3.26 | 3.85 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .