Leon
vs
Toluca
Garuda Lions Prediction: Toluca
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Toluca is the favourite, not a value bet.
Leon vs Toluca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leon vs Toluca
| Probability | Leon | Draw | Toluca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.6% | 24.3% | 32.1% |
| Market | 27.2% | 25.8% | 47.0% |
| Final | 31.3% | 25.4% | 43.3% |
| Edge | +4.1% | -0.4% | -3.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.9% per unit staked (our 43.3% × 2.06 − 1).
Leon vs Toluca match preview
In the upcoming Liga MX match between Leon and Toluca, the probabilities indicate a closely contested encounter, with Leon at 37% to win, Toluca at 38%, and a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability. Both teams have shown a propensity for goals, with an expected goals tally of 1.69 for Leon and 1.71 for Toluca, suggesting a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 68%.
Recent form shows Leon with a record of L-D-W-D-W-L, while Toluca has a slightly better run at D-L-D-L-W-W. In their last ten encounters, Toluca has the upper hand with 5 wins compared to Leon's single victory and 4 draws. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Leon and Toluca expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.41
Leon and Toluca attack and defence ratings
Leon
Toluca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
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- Monterrey v Guadalajara Chivas — match page
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL — team news & stats
- Atlas vs Puebla
- Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul — team news & stats
- Club America v CF Pachuca — match page
- Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna
Before and after this match
Leon vs Toluca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 43.3% | 2.31 | -3.7% | 2.06 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leon | 31.3% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Toluca | 43.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.6% |
| No | 32.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win | 15.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.3% | |
| Loss | 67.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 7.5% |
Leon vs Toluca stats
Leon and Toluca recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Leon and Toluca season so far
Leon record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toluca record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Leon vs Toluca head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Toluca | Leon | Leagues Cup | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Toluca | Leon | Liga MX | 4-1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Leon | Toluca | Liga MX | 2-4 |
| 2025-02-09 | Leon | Toluca | Liga MX | 3-3 |
| 2024-11-02 | Toluca | Leon | Liga MX | 2-2 |
| 2024-02-03 | Toluca | Leon | Liga MX | 4-1 |
| 2023-10-21 | Leon | Toluca | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2023-01-29 | Toluca | Leon | Liga MX | 0-0 |
| 2022-07-27 | Leon | Toluca | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2022-05-02 | Leon | Toluca | Liga MX | 4-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Leon vs Toluca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.5%, draw 25.8%, away 46.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.46 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.25 | 3.75 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.35 | 3.65 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.50 | 3.70 | 2.03 |
| Marathonbet | 3.45 | 3.60 | 1.93 |
| Pinnacle | 3.64 | 3.43 | 2.06 |
| SBO | 2.93 | 3.20 | 2.02 |
| William Hill | 3.20 | 3.25 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .