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Liga MX · ·Apertura - 15

Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC

Garuda Lions Prediction: Guadalajara Chivas

1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.59.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Guadalajara Chivas is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Guadalajara Chivas

Estadio Akron, Zapopan

Guadalajara Chivas 63%
Draw 22%
Atlante FC 15%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Guadalajara Chivas wins
63%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
88%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
37%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 0
16% of simulated outcomes

Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGuadalajara ChivasDrawAtlante FC
Model62.3%25.8%11.9%
Market63.7%20.7%15.6%
Final63.3%22.0%14.7%
Edge-0.3%+1.3%-0.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Guadalajara Chivas

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.59.

Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (our 63.3% × 1.47 − 1).

Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC match preview

Guadalajara Chivas are positioned strongly ahead of their match against Atlante FC, with a 62% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals for Chivas stand at 1.66, compared to Atlante FC's 0.59, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 16% likelihood.

In terms of recent form, Guadalajara Chivas have recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches, while Atlante FC's form shows two wins, three losses, and one draw. The probabilities suggest a draw at 26% and a 12% chance for an Atlante FC victory. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 39%, and both teams scoring is projected at 37%.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Guadalajara Ch ↓ / Atlante FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 1 16% 11% 2 14% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 67%
3+ goals 39%
No goals 12%

Guadalajara Chivas and Atlante FC expected goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1.66
Atlante FC 0.59

Total expected goals: 2.25

Guadalajara Chivas and Atlante FC attack and defence ratings

Guadalajara Chivas

Attack 0.99 -1%
Defence 0.66 -34%

Atlante FC

Attack 0.71 -29%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Apertura - 15 fixtures

Liga MX

Before and after this match

Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Guadalajara Chivas 63.3% 1.58 -0.3% 1.47
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 61.0% 1.64 — —
Both teams to score No 62.9% 1.59 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 85.3% 1.17 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 37.7% 2.65 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Guadalajara Chivas63.3%
Draw22.0%
Atlante FC14.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539.0%
Under 2.561.0%
Both teams to scoreYes37.1%
No62.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)85.3%
12 (either side)78.0%
X2 (draw or away)36.7%
Handicap -1Guadalajara Chivas win35.8%
Push (exactly one goal)26.6%
Loss37.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-016.5%
2-014.5%
0-011.6%
Compare prices for this pick

Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC stats

Guadalajara Chivas and Atlante FC recent form

newest first
Guadalajara Chivas WWDDLD
Atlante FC LWLLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Guadalajara Chivas and Atlante FC season so far

league record

Guadalajara Chivas record

  • They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atlante FC record

  • They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).

Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 63.7%, draw 20.7%, away 15.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.46 4.45 5.87
Betfair 1.44 4.50 6.00
Dafabet 1.46 4.60 6.00
Marathonbet 1.45 4.45 5.80
Pinnacle 1.47 4.69 6.11
William Hill 1.44 4.00 5.50
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.46 ▲ +0.01
X 4.47 —
2 5.94 —

2 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Guadalajara Chivas Predicted score 1 – 0 Low Bet Now
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