Santos Laguna
vs
Necaxa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Santos Laguna
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 0.89.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Santos Laguna vs Necaxa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Santos Laguna vs Necaxa
| Probability | Santos Laguna | Draw | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.2% | 19.1% | 11.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 69.2% | 19.1% | 11.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Santos Laguna
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Santos Laguna vs Necaxa match preview
Santos Laguna enters this match with a solid recent form, having won five of their last six matches, while Necaxa struggles with only one draw in their last six games. According to our model, Santos Laguna has a 69% probability of winning, with an expected goals tally of 2.36 compared to Necaxa's 0.89. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-0 in favor of Santos Laguna, occurring with an 11% likelihood.
Despite Santos Laguna's strong performance, their head-to-head record against Necaxa shows no wins for them in the last two encounters, with Necaxa winning both. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 63%, while both teams scoring is estimated at 54%. This match presents an interesting dynamic, given the contrasting forms of the two teams.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Santos Laguna and Necaxa expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.25
Santos Laguna and Necaxa attack and defence ratings
Santos Laguna
Necaxa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Santos Laguna vs Necaxa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santos Laguna | 69.2% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.3% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Santos Laguna win | 47.2% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santos Laguna | 69.2% |
| Draw | 19.1% | |
| Necaxa | 11.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% |
| No | 45.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 30.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Santos Laguna win | 47.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 30.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-1 | 9.0% |
Santos Laguna vs Necaxa stats
Santos Laguna and Necaxa recent form
| Santos Laguna |
LWWWWW |
| Necaxa |
DLLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Santos Laguna and Necaxa season so far
Santos Laguna record
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Necaxa record
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Santos Laguna vs Necaxa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Santos Laguna | Necaxa | Liga MX | 1-3 |
| 2025-11-01 | Necaxa | Santos Laguna | Liga MX | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.