CF Pachuca
vs
Tigres UANL
Garuda Lions Prediction: CF Pachuca
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.93.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL
| Probability | CF Pachuca | Draw | Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.9% | 30.0% | 24.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 45.9% | 30.0% | 24.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why CF Pachuca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.93.
CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL match preview
CF Pachuca faces Tigres UANL in an intriguing Liga MX matchup. Our model gives Pachuca a 43% chance of winning, while Tigres UANL stands at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Pachuca, with a 12% probability. Expected goals suggest Pachuca will generate 1.32, compared to Tigres' 0.97, indicating a slight edge for the home team.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Pachuca recording two losses followed by a win, and Tigres UANL alternating between draws and wins. The head-to-head record in their last two encounters is evenly split, with each team securing one victory. The probability of over 2.5 goals is at 40%, and both teams scoring stands at 47%, hinting at a potentially close contest.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
CF Pachuca and Tigres UANL expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.30
CF Pachuca and Tigres UANL attack and defence ratings
CF Pachuca
Tigres UANL
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CF Pachuca | 45.9% | 2.18 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CF Pachuca | 45.9% |
| Draw | 30.0% | |
| Tigres UANL | 24.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.4% |
| No | 53.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | CF Pachuca win | 22.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 54.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 12.5% | |
| 0-0 | 11.3% |
CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL stats
CF Pachuca and Tigres UANL recent form
| CF Pachuca |
WLLDLD |
| Tigres UANL |
DLDWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
CF Pachuca and Tigres UANL season so far
CF Pachuca record
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tigres UANL record
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Tigres UANL | CF Pachuca | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-23 | CF Pachuca | Tigres UANL | Liga MX | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.