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Liga MX · ·Apertura - 16

Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul

Garuda Lions Prediction: Cruz Azul

0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.02.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Cruz Azul is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Cruz Azul

Estadio Universitario, Monterey

Tigres UANL 27%
Draw 26%
Cruz Azul 47%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Cruz Azul wins
47%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
92%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
53%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
0 – 1
10% of simulated outcomes

Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityTigres UANLDrawCruz Azul
Model22.1%26.6%51.3%
Market29.1%25.8%45.1%
Final27.3%26.0%46.7%
Edge-1.7%+0.2%+1.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Cruz Azul

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.02.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 2.13, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.6% per unit staked (our 46.7% × 2.13 − 1).

Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul match preview

Tigres UANL faces Cruz Azul in an upcoming Liga MX match, with the probabilities indicating a 30% chance of a Tigres win, a 27% likelihood of a draw, and a 44% chance for Cruz Azul to secure victory. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, with a 10% probability. Tigres UANL has recorded a mixed recent form of L-D-L-D-W-W, while Cruz Azul is on a strong run with W-W-W-W-D-D.

Expected goals suggest Tigres UANL will score 1.02, while Cruz Azul is forecasted to net 1.66. The model indicates a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance that both teams will score. In their last four encounters, Tigres UANL has not won, with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss to Cruz Azul.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Tigres UANL ↓ / Cruz Azul → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 10% 9% 1 13% 10% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul expected goals

Tigres UANL 1.02
Cruz Azul 1.67

Total expected goals: 2.69

Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul attack and defence ratings

Tigres UANL

Attack 0.65 -35%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Cruz Azul

Attack 1.45 +45%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Apertura - 16 fixtures

Liga MX

Before and after this match

Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Cruz Azul 46.7% 2.14 +1.5% 2.13
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.4% 1.98 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.1% 1.88 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.0% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.7% 2.05 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Tigres UANL27.3%
Draw26.0%
Cruz Azul46.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.4%
Under 2.549.6%
Both teams to scoreYes53.1%
No46.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)53.3%
12 (either side)74.0%
X2 (draw or away)72.7%
Handicap -1Cruz Azul win28.3%
Push (exactly one goal)23.0%
Loss48.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.7%
0-110.1%
1-29.7%
Compare prices for this pick

Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul stats

Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul recent form

newest first
Tigres UANL LDLDWW
Cruz Azul WWWWDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul season so far

league record

Tigres UANL record

  • They have won 3 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 15 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Cruz Azul record

  • They have won 9 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).

Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Tigres UANL wins 5Draws 3Cruz Azul wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-15Cruz AzulTigres UANLLiga MX2-1
2025-12-07Tigres UANLCruz AzulLiga MX1-1
2025-12-04Cruz AzulTigres UANLLiga MX1-1
2025-10-05Tigres UANLCruz AzulLiga MX1-1
2025-05-02Cruz AzulTigres UANLCONCACAF Champions League1-0
2025-04-24Tigres UANLCruz AzulCONCACAF Champions League1-1
2025-02-16Tigres UANLCruz AzulLiga MX2-1
2024-11-10Cruz AzulTigres UANLLiga MX1-1
2024-02-18Cruz AzulTigres UANLLiga MX1-0
2023-10-22Tigres UANLCruz AzulLiga MX2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 29.1%, draw 25.8%, away 45.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.20 3.52 2.07
Bet365 3.40 3.60 2.05
BetVictor 3.13 3.60 2.05
Betano 3.20 3.65 2.10
Betfair 3.20 3.60 2.05
Dafabet 3.25 3.65 2.13
Marathonbet 3.18 3.52 2.05
Pinnacle 3.42 3.77 2.08
SBO 2.84 3.13 2.08
William Hill 3.10 3.30 2.00
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.20 ▲ +0.37
X 3.60 ▲ +0.10
2 2.06 ▼ -0.20

9 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 Cruz Azul Predicted score 0 – 1 Low Bet Now
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