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Liga MX · ·Apertura - 16

Atlas vs CF Pachuca

Garuda Lions Prediction: Atlas

2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability

  • WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Atlas is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Atlas

Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara

Atlas 39%
Draw 26%
CF Pachuca 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Atlas wins
39%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
96%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
70%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
8% of simulated outcomes

Atlas vs CF Pachuca overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atlas vs CF Pachuca

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtlasDrawCF Pachuca
Model39.4%23.8%36.7%
Market39.5%27.2%33.4%
Final39.5%26.3%34.2%
Edge-0.0%-0.8%+0.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Atlas

  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.4% per unit staked (our 39.5% × 2.50 − 1).

Atlas vs CF Pachuca match preview

Atlas faces CF Pachuca in a Liga MX matchup with a forecasted probability of 41% for an Atlas win, 26% for a draw, and 33% for a Pachuca victory. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Atlas, with an 8% likelihood. Both teams are expected to score, with a 70% probability, and there is a 69% chance that the match will see over 2.5 goals. The expected goals are 1.82 for Atlas and 1.75 for CF Pachuca.

In terms of recent form, Atlas has won three of their last five matches, with one draw and one loss, while CF Pachuca has two wins, two losses, and one draw in their last five games. Historically, in their last two encounters, CF Pachuca has won both matches against Atlas. The confidence grade for this analysis stands at C.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atlas ↓ / CF Pachuca → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 8% 2 8% 7% 3 5% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 69%
No goals 4%

Atlas and CF Pachuca expected goals

Atlas 1.82
CF Pachuca 1.75

Total expected goals: 3.57

Atlas and CF Pachuca attack and defence ratings

Atlas

Attack 1.19 +19%
Defence 1.21 +21%

CF Pachuca

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Apertura - 16 fixtures

Liga MX

Before and after this match

Atlas vs CF Pachuca markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atlas 39.5% 2.53 -0.0% 2.50
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 69.3% 1.44 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.2% 1.42 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.7% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 60.6% 1.65 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atlas39.5%
Draw26.3%
CF Pachuca34.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569.3%
Under 2.530.7%
Both teams to scoreYes70.2%
No29.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)65.8%
12 (either side)73.7%
X2 (draw or away)60.5%
Handicap -1Atlas win21.4%
Push (exactly one goal)18.1%
Loss60.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.8%
2-18.1%
1-27.9%
Compare prices for this pick

Atlas vs CF Pachuca stats

Atlas and CF Pachuca recent form

newest first
Atlas WWLWDW
CF Pachuca WWLLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atlas and CF Pachuca season so far

league record

Atlas record

  • They have won 8 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

CF Pachuca record

  • They have won 5 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
  • 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atlas vs CF Pachuca head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Atlas wins 1Draws 6CF Pachuca wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-14CF PachucaAtlasLiga MX3-1
2025-08-10AtlasCF PachucaLiga MX0-3
2025-02-02CF PachucaAtlasLiga MX0-0
2024-09-14AtlasCF PachucaLiga MX2-0
2024-02-01CF PachucaAtlasLiga MX4-3
2023-11-02AtlasCF PachucaLiga MX0-2
2023-04-15AtlasCF PachucaLiga MX4-1
2022-08-26CF PachucaAtlasLiga MX3-1
2022-05-30CF PachucaAtlasLiga MX2-1
2022-05-27AtlasCF PachucaLiga MX2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atlas vs CF Pachuca odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.5%, draw 27.2%, away 33.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.35 3.40 2.78
Bet365 2.50 3.40 2.88
BetVictor 2.30 3.50 2.70
Betano 2.37 3.30 2.95
Betfair 2.30 3.50 2.75
Dafabet 2.36 3.55 2.90
Marathonbet 2.33 3.40 2.75
Pinnacle 2.44 3.64 2.84
SBO 2.26 3.33 2.73
William Hill 2.25 3.25 2.62
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.34 ▲ +0.09
X 3.40 ▼ -0.10
2 2.76 ▼ -0.24

13 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Atlas Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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