Guadalajara Chivas
vs
Tigres UANL
Garuda Lions Prediction: Guadalajara Chivas
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL
| Probability | Guadalajara Chivas | Draw | Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.1% | 29.4% | 19.5% |
| Market | 51.7% | 25.1% | 23.2% |
| Final | 51.6% | 26.2% | 22.3% |
| Edge | -0.6% | +4.3% | -3.7% |
Why Guadalajara Chivas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.80.
Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL match preview
Guadalajara Chivas face Tigres UANL in a Liga MX clash, with the home side holding a 50% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% chance of occurring. Expected goals suggest Guadalajara Chivas will score 1.45, while Tigres UANL is projected to net 0.79. Recent form shows Guadalajara Chivas with mixed results, including two draws and two wins in their last six matches, while Tigres UANL has two wins, but also three draws and one loss.
In their last four encounters, Guadalajara Chivas has secured one win, while Tigres UANL has claimed two victories and there has been one draw. The probability of over 2.5 goals is at 39%, and both teams scoring stands at 43%. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Guadalajara Chivas and Tigres UANL expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.24
Guadalajara Chivas and Tigres UANL attack and defence ratings
Guadalajara Chivas
Tigres UANL
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 51.6% | 1.94 | -0.6% | 1.87 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.9% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 51.6% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Tigres UANL | 22.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.1% |
| No | 56.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Guadalajara Chivas win | 26.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.8% | |
| Loss | 48.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.2% |
| 1-1 | 13.5% | |
| 0-0 | 11.9% |
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL stats
Guadalajara Chivas and Tigres UANL recent form
| Guadalajara Chivas |
DLDWWD |
| Tigres UANL |
WWLDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Guadalajara Chivas and Tigres UANL season so far
Guadalajara Chivas record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tigres UANL record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Guadalajara Chivas | Tigres UANL | Liga MX | 2-0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Tigres UANL | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX | 3-1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Tigres UANL | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX | 4-1 |
| 2025-09-18 | Guadalajara Chivas | Tigres UANL | Liga MX | 0-0 |
| 2025-01-26 | Guadalajara Chivas | Tigres UANL | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2024-08-25 | Tigres UANL | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2024-01-22 | Tigres UANL | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2023-10-29 | Guadalajara Chivas | Tigres UANL | Liga MX | 0-4 |
| 2023-05-29 | Guadalajara Chivas | Tigres UANL | Liga MX | 2-3 |
| 2023-05-26 | Tigres UANL | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.2%, draw 25.3%, away 23.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.79 | 3.70 | 3.98 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.87 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.86 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.77 | 3.70 | 3.98 |
| Pinnacle | 1.86 | 3.59 | 4.54 |
| SBO | 1.81 | 3.21 | 3.53 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.25 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .