Liga MX
·
Full time
·Apertura - 11
Atlas
vs
Guadalajara Chivas
1 – 1 Full time
| 26′ | Juan Sánchez | ||
| 30′ | Richard Ledezma | ||
| 41′ | Daniel Aguirre | ||
| 45′ | Diego CampilloCarlos Hernandez | ||
| 52′ | Kevin Zenon | ||
| 63′ | Florián Monzón | ||
| 65′ | Paulo RamirezEdgar Zaldívar | ||
| 66′ | Leonel Calderón OviedoKevin Castañeda | ||
| 66′ | Ricardo MarínHugo Camberos | ||
| 66′ | Richard LedezmaSantiago Sandoval | ||
| 82′ | Elías MontielAldo Rocha | ||
| 84′ | Kevin Castañeda | ||
| 86′ | Ángel Sepúlveda | ||
| 87′ | Ryan MmaeeSergio Hernández | ||
| 89′ | Santiago Sandoval | ||
| 90′ | Roberto AlvaradoEfrain Alvarez | ||
| 90′ | Kevin Castañeda |
Atlas
29%
Draw
27%
Guadalajara Chivas
44%
Match stats
| 6 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 44 | Possession % | 56 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 4 | Saves | 2 |
| 232 | Accurate passes | 321 |
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas
| Probability | Atlas | Draw | Guadalajara Chivas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.3% | 25.8% | 42.9% |
| Market | 28.6% | 26.8% | 44.7% |
| Final | 29.2% | 26.5% | 44.2% |
| Edge | +0.7% | -0.2% | -0.4% |
Why Guadalajara Chivas
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
83%
3+ goals
60%
No goals
6%
Atlas and Guadalajara Chivas expected goals
Atlas
1.42
Guadalajara Chivas
1.68
Total expected goals: 3.10
Atlas and Guadalajara Chivas attack and defence ratings
Atlas
Attack
1.04 +4%
Defence
1.22 +22%
Guadalajara Chivas
Attack
1.11 +11%
Defence
0.82 -18%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas: result vs prediction
Atlas 1 – 1 Guadalajara Chivas
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 44.2% | 2.26 | -0.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlas | 29.2% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Guadalajara Chivas | 44.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.8% |
| No | 37.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Guadalajara Chivas win | 22.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 57.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | |
| 2-1 | 7.6% |
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas stats
Atlas and Guadalajara Chivas recent form
| Atlas |
WDLDLW |
| Guadalajara Chivas |
LDWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atlas and Guadalajara Chivas going into this match
Atlas record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Guadalajara Chivas record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Atlas wins
4Draws
4Guadalajara Chivas wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | Atlas | Guadalajara Chivas | Friendlies Clubs | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Atlas | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2026-01-04 | Atlas | Guadalajara Chivas | Friendlies Clubs | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Guadalajara Chivas | Atlas | Liga MX | 4-1 |
| 2025-04-20 | Atlas | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2024-12-28 | Atlas | Guadalajara Chivas | Friendlies Clubs | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-22 | Guadalajara Chivas | Atlas | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2024-10-06 | Guadalajara Chivas | Atlas | Liga MX | 2-3 |
| 2024-04-28 | Atlas | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2024-03-25 | Guadalajara Chivas | Atlas | Friendlies Clubs | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.6%, draw 26.8%, away 44.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.26 | 3.40 | 2.09 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.70 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.40 | 3.45 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.40 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| Marathonbet | 3.24 | 3.40 | 2.07 |
| Pinnacle | 3.53 | 3.56 | 2.10 |
| SBO | 3.13 | 3.35 | 2.04 |
| William Hill | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.25 ▲ +0.17
X
3.48 ▼ -0.02
2
2.08 ▼ -0.10
16 snapshots recorded, from .