Atlas
vs
Guadalajara Chivas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Guadalajara Chivas
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas
| Probability | Atlas | Draw | Guadalajara Chivas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.3% | 25.8% | 42.9% |
| Market | 30.0% | 27.1% | 42.9% |
| Final | 30.3% | 26.8% | 42.9% |
| Edge | +1.3% | -1.4% | +0.1% |
Why Guadalajara Chivas
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas match preview
Atlas faces Guadalajara Chivas in a Liga MX matchup with a kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. The model indicates a 30% chance for an Atlas victory, while Guadalajara Chivas holds a 43% probability of winning, with a 27% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals suggest Atlas will score 1.42, compared to Guadalajara Chivas' 1.69.
In recent form, Atlas has recorded one win, two draws, and two losses, while Guadalajara Chivas has fared better with three wins, two draws, and one loss. Historically, in their last two encounters, Atlas has not secured a win, with Guadalajara Chivas winning both matches. The most likely scoreline for this fixture is 1-2, with a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atlas and Guadalajara Chivas expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.10
Atlas and Guadalajara Chivas attack and defence ratings
Atlas
Guadalajara Chivas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 42.9% | 2.33 | +0.1% | 2.22 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlas | 30.3% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Guadalajara Chivas | 42.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.8% |
| No | 37.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Guadalajara Chivas win | 23.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 57.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | |
| 2-1 | 7.6% |
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas stats
Atlas and Guadalajara Chivas recent form
| Atlas |
WDLDLW |
| Guadalajara Chivas |
LDWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atlas and Guadalajara Chivas season so far
Atlas record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Guadalajara Chivas record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Atlas | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Guadalajara Chivas | Atlas | Liga MX | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.0%, draw 27.1%, away 42.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.10 | 3.35 | 2.18 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.22 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.15 | 3.55 | 2.21 |
| Marathonbet | 3.08 | 3.35 | 2.16 |
| Pinnacle | 3.29 | 3.46 | 2.19 |
| SBO | 2.74 | 3.08 | 2.16 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.15 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .