Puebla
vs
Leon
Garuda Lions Prediction: Leon
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Puebla vs Leon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Puebla vs Leon
| Probability | Puebla | Draw | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.8% | 30.0% | 45.2% |
| Market | 32.8% | 28.4% | 38.8% |
| Final | 30.8% | 28.8% | 40.4% |
| Edge | -8.1% | +1.7% | +6.4% |
Why Leon
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Leon below the model: +6.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.57, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Puebla vs Leon match preview
In the upcoming Liga MX match between Puebla and Leon, the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter, with Leon holding a slight advantage at 40% compared to Puebla's 31% and a 29% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1 in favor of Leon, which aligns with the expected goals of 0.95 for Puebla and 1.37 for Leon.
Recent form shows Puebla with mixed results, recording two wins and three losses in their last six matches. In contrast, Leon has experienced more fluctuations, with three wins and three losses in their recent outings. Historically, the head-to-head record favors Leon, who has secured five wins in the last ten encounters, while Puebla has won three times. The confidence grade for this match stands at C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Puebla and Leon expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.32
Puebla and Leon attack and defence ratings
Puebla
Leon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Puebla vs Leon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leon | 40.4% | 2.47 | +6.4% | 2.57 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Puebla | 30.8% |
| Draw | 28.8% | |
| Leon | 40.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.0% |
| No | 53.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leon win | 22.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 54.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 0-1 | 12.2% | |
| 0-0 | 11.1% |
Puebla vs Leon stats
Puebla and Leon recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Puebla and Leon season so far
Puebla record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Leon record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Puebla vs Leon head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Puebla | Leon | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Leon | Puebla | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-12 | Leon | Puebla | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2024-07-17 | Puebla | Leon | Liga MX | 2-2 |
| 2024-03-17 | Leon | Puebla | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2023-11-04 | Puebla | Leon | Liga MX | 5-4 |
| 2023-02-15 | Leon | Puebla | Liga MX | 2-0 |
| 2022-07-16 | Puebla | Leon | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2022-04-16 | Leon | Puebla | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2021-11-29 | Leon | Puebla | Liga MX | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Puebla vs Leon odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.8%, draw 28.4%, away 38.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.88 | 3.24 | 2.36 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.57 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.43 |
| Marathonbet | 2.85 | 3.24 | 2.34 |
| Pinnacle | 2.99 | 3.35 | 2.47 |
| SBO | 2.74 | 3.11 | 2.26 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .