Puebla
vs
Leon
1 – 1 Full time
| 42′ | Ismael Díaz | ||
| 46′ | Jesús Lara | ||
| 56′ | Mathías Adrián Tomás BorgesIgnacio Maestro | ||
| 56′ | L. HernándezEduardo Mustre | ||
| 57′ | Fernando BeltranJordi Cortizo | ||
| 57′ | Ismael DíazDaniel Arcila | ||
| 57′ | Jesús LaraRodrigo Echeverría | ||
| 66′ | Omar MorenoHeriberto Jurado | ||
| 70′ | Edgar GuerraJuan Dominguez | ||
| 80′ | Heriberto Jurado | ||
| 80′ | Fernando MonarrezOscar Villa | ||
| 81′ | Alejandro OrganistaEduardo Armenta | ||
| 85′ | Diber CambindoJose Alvarado | ||
| 87′ | Eduardo Armenta | ||
| 90′ | Jordi Cortizo |
Match stats
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Offsides | 3 |
| 2 | Saves | 5 |
| 382 | Accurate passes | 357 |
Puebla vs Leon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Puebla vs Leon
| Probability | Puebla | Draw | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.8% | 30.0% | 45.2% |
| Market | 32.8% | 28.4% | 38.8% |
| Final | 30.8% | 28.8% | 40.4% |
| Edge | -2.0% | +0.4% | +1.6% |
Why Leon
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Puebla and Leon expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.32
Puebla and Leon attack and defence ratings
Puebla
Leon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Puebla vs Leon: result vs prediction
Puebla 1 – 1 Leon
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Puebla vs Leon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leon | 40.4% | 2.47 | +1.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Puebla | 30.8% |
| Draw | 28.8% | |
| Leon | 40.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.0% |
| No | 53.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leon win | 22.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 54.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 0-1 | 12.2% | |
| 0-0 | 11.1% |
Puebla vs Leon stats
Puebla and Leon recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Puebla and Leon going into this match
Puebla record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Leon record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Puebla vs Leon head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Puebla | Leon | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Leon | Puebla | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-12 | Leon | Puebla | Liga MX | 1-0 |
| 2024-07-17 | Puebla | Leon | Liga MX | 2-2 |
| 2024-03-17 | Leon | Puebla | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2023-11-04 | Puebla | Leon | Liga MX | 5-4 |
| 2023-02-15 | Leon | Puebla | Liga MX | 2-0 |
| 2022-07-16 | Puebla | Leon | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2022-04-16 | Leon | Puebla | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2021-11-29 | Leon | Puebla | Liga MX | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Puebla vs Leon odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.8%, draw 28.4%, away 38.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.88 | 3.24 | 2.36 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.57 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.43 |
| Marathonbet | 2.85 | 3.24 | 2.34 |
| Pinnacle | 2.99 | 3.35 | 2.47 |
| SBO | 2.74 | 3.11 | 2.26 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .