Garuda Lions
Today
Liga MX · Full time ·Apertura - 10

Leon vs FC Juarez

2 – 1 Full time

3′Sebastián Vegas
45′Jordi CortizoJuan Dominguez
45′Sebastián VegasSalvador Reyes
53′Juan Guevara
58′Fernando BeltranJose Alvarado
58′Ismael DíazEdgar Guerra
62′Ricardo OliveiraRaymundo Fulgencio
62′Manuel MayorgaEder Lopez
76′Francisco Nevarez
79′Jesus Murillo
81′Gilberto SepulvedaLuca Dupuy
83′Francisco Nevarez
83′Diber CambindoPaul Bellón
90′Oscar Estupiñan
90′Francisco NevarezJavier Aquino
90′Madson de Souza SilvaHaret Ortega
90′Jose Alvarado

Estadio León, LeonReferee: Yonatan Peinado Aguirre

Leon 63%
Draw 21%
FC Juarez 15%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

7 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 1
56 Possession % 44
1 Corners 4
14 Fouls 14
6 Offsides 1
0 Saves 2
316 Accurate passes 229

Leon vs FC Juarez overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Leon vs FC Juarez

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLeonDrawFC Juarez
Model72.8%18.1%9.0%
Market60.3%22.5%17.1%
Final63.5%21.4%15.1%
Edge+12.5%-4.4%-8.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Leon

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 0.73.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Leon below the model: +12.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Leon ↓ / FC Juarez → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 9% 2 13% 9% 3 10% 7% 4+ 10% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 60%
No goals 5%

Leon and FC Juarez expected goals

Leon 2.35
FC Juarez 0.73

Total expected goals: 3.08

Leon and FC Juarez attack and defence ratings

Leon

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 0.76 -24%

FC Juarez

Attack 0.78 -22%
Defence 1.44 +44%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Leon vs FC Juarez: result vs prediction

Leon 2 – 1 FC Juarez

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Apertura - 10 fixtures

Liga MX

Before and after this match

Leon vs FC Juarez markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Leon 63.5% 1.58 +12.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 59.6% 1.68 — —
Both teams to score No 52.2% 1.92 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 84.9% 1.18 — —
Handicap -1 Leon win 50.4% 1.98 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Leon63.5%
Draw21.4%
FC Juarez15.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559.6%
Under 2.540.4%
Both teams to scoreYes47.8%
No52.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)84.9%
12 (either side)78.6%
X2 (draw or away)36.5%
Handicap -1Leon win50.4%
Push (exactly one goal)22.3%
Loss27.3%
Correct score (top 3)2-012.6%
1-09.9%
3-09.9%

Leon vs FC Juarez stats

Leon and FC Juarez recent form

newest first
Leon DWLWLD
FC Juarez WLLLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Leon and FC Juarez going into this match

league record before kick-off

Leon record

  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Juarez record

  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Leon vs FC Juarez head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Leon wins 2Draws 2FC Juarez wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-19LeonFC JuarezLiga MX3-1
2025-09-27FC JuarezLeonLiga MX2-0
2025-01-25LeonFC JuarezLiga MX1-0
2024-10-20FC JuarezLeonLiga MX2-3
2024-04-27FC JuarezLeonLiga MX1-1
2023-11-13LeonFC JuarezLiga MX2-1
2023-02-18FC JuarezLeonLiga MX0-0
2022-09-07LeonFC JuarezLiga MX1-0
2022-03-05FC JuarezLeonLiga MX0-1
2021-09-18LeonFC JuarezLiga MX0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Leon vs FC Juarez odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 60.3%, draw 22.5%, away 17.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.54 4.10 5.39
Bet365 1.55 4.10 6.00
BetVictor 1.53 4.20 5.25
Betano 1.57 4.15 5.60
Betfair 1.53 4.33 5.00
Marathonbet 1.52 4.10 5.45
Pinnacle 1.57 4.30 5.72
SBO 1.51 3.90 4.84
William Hill 1.53 3.75 5.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.53 ▼ -0.04
X 4.10 ▲ +0.07
2 5.39 ▲ +0.26

12 snapshots recorded, from .