CF Pachuca
vs
Necaxa
Garuda Lions Prediction: CF Pachuca
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
CF Pachuca vs Necaxa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CF Pachuca vs Necaxa
| Probability | CF Pachuca | Draw | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.3% | 21.1% | 12.6% |
| Market | 55.4% | 24.1% | 20.5% |
| Final | 58.1% | 23.4% | 18.5% |
| Edge | +10.9% | -3.0% | -7.9% |
Why CF Pachuca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices CF Pachuca below the model: +10.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
CF Pachuca vs Necaxa match preview
CF Pachuca enters this matchup against Necaxa with a strong probability of winning at 58%, reflecting their recent form of one loss, two wins, and three draws. The expected goals for Pachuca stand at 2.13, suggesting a solid offensive performance, while Necaxa is projected to score only 0.83 goals. Our model indicates a most likely scoreline of 2-0 in favor of Pachuca, which aligns with their previous head-to-head dominance, having won both of the last two encounters against Necaxa.
Necaxa, on the other hand, has struggled recently, recording four losses and two draws in their last six matches. Their current form indicates challenges in both scoring and defense, contributing to a low probability of victory at 18%. Additionally, there is a 51% chance that both teams will score, while the model suggests a 57% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match, hinting at a potentially high-scoring affair.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
CF Pachuca and Necaxa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.96
CF Pachuca and Necaxa attack and defence ratings
CF Pachuca
Necaxa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
CF Pachuca vs Necaxa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CF Pachuca | 58.1% | 1.72 | +10.9% | 1.73 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.5% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | CF Pachuca win | 43.1% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CF Pachuca | 58.1% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| Necaxa | 18.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% |
| No | 49.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | CF Pachuca win | 43.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 33.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.7% |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | |
| 1-1 | 10.1% |
CF Pachuca vs Necaxa stats
CF Pachuca and Necaxa recent form
| CF Pachuca |
LDWWDD |
| Necaxa |
LLLDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
CF Pachuca and Necaxa season so far
CF Pachuca record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Necaxa record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CF Pachuca vs Necaxa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | CF Pachuca | Necaxa | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Necaxa | CF Pachuca | Liga MX | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
CF Pachuca vs Necaxa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.4%, draw 24.1%, away 20.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.68 | 3.84 | 4.49 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.85 | 4.60 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.66 | 3.84 | 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.70 | 4.05 | 4.55 |
| SBO | 1.63 | 3.52 | 3.98 |
| William Hill | 1.65 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .