Liga MX
·
Full time
·Apertura - 11
CF Pachuca
vs
Necaxa
3 – 3 Full time
| 15′ | Matias Espindola | ||
| 41′ | Julián Carranza | ||
| 45′ | Miguel Rodriguez | ||
| 45′ | Eduardo Dos Santos | ||
| 45′ | Ian Josué Zavala OsorioJavier Vallejo | ||
| 45′ | Sergio RodríguezAdrián Alcaraz | ||
| 52′ | Julián CarranzaJuan Valencia | ||
| 60′ | Matias Espindola | ||
| 62′ | Matias EspindolaLorenzo Faravelli | ||
| 62′ | Owen GonzálezKevin Ante | ||
| 63′ | Oussama IdrissiGael Álvarez | ||
| 63′ | Sebastian SantosAlan Bautista | ||
| 67′ | Luis Jiménez | ||
| 74′ | Miguel RodriguezRaúl Martínez | ||
| 74′ | Emilio MartínezJavier Ruiz | ||
| 77′ | Francisco Venegas | ||
| 78′ | Javier Vallejo | ||
| 79′ | Juan Valencia | ||
| 80′ | Francisco VenegasMauricio Isais | ||
| 84′ | Salomón Rondón | ||
| 85′ | Juan Valencia | ||
| 87′ | Salomón Rondón | ||
| 90′ | Eduardo Dos Santos | ||
| 90′ | Alan Bautista |
CF Pachuca
58%
Draw
23%
Necaxa
19%
Match stats
| 18 | Shots | 16 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 61 | Possession % | 39 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Offsides | 2 |
| 3 | Saves | 3 |
| 385 | Accurate passes | 245 |
CF Pachuca vs Necaxa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CF Pachuca vs Necaxa
| Probability | CF Pachuca | Draw | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.4% | 21.1% | 12.5% |
| Market | 55.2% | 24.2% | 20.6% |
| Final | 58.0% | 23.4% | 18.6% |
| Edge | +2.8% | -0.8% | -2.0% |
Why CF Pachuca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices CF Pachuca below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
80%
3+ goals
57%
No goals
6%
CF Pachuca and Necaxa expected goals
CF Pachuca
2.13
Necaxa
0.83
Total expected goals: 2.97
CF Pachuca and Necaxa attack and defence ratings
CF Pachuca
Attack
0.94 -6%
Defence
0.83 -17%
Necaxa
Attack
0.81 -19%
Defence
1.36 +36%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
CF Pachuca vs Necaxa: result vs prediction
CF Pachuca 3 – 3 Necaxa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
CF Pachuca vs Necaxa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CF Pachuca | 58.0% | 1.72 | +2.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.4% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | CF Pachuca win | 43.1% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CF Pachuca | 58.0% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| Necaxa | 18.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% |
| No | 49.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | CF Pachuca win | 43.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 33.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.7% |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | |
| 1-1 | 10.1% |
CF Pachuca vs Necaxa stats
CF Pachuca and Necaxa recent form
| CF Pachuca |
LDWWDD |
| Necaxa |
LLLDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
CF Pachuca and Necaxa going into this match
CF Pachuca record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Necaxa record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CF Pachuca vs Necaxa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
7CF Pachuca wins
2Draws
1Necaxa wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | CF Pachuca | Necaxa | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Necaxa | CF Pachuca | Liga MX | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-12 | Necaxa | CF Pachuca | Liga MX | 3-5 |
| 2024-11-03 | CF Pachuca | Necaxa | Liga MX | 6-2 |
| 2024-05-06 | CF Pachuca | Necaxa | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2024-02-24 | Necaxa | CF Pachuca | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2023-09-30 | CF Pachuca | Necaxa | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2023-01-30 | CF Pachuca | Necaxa | Liga MX | 2-1 |
| 2022-07-28 | Necaxa | CF Pachuca | Liga MX | 2-0 |
| 2022-02-05 | Necaxa | CF Pachuca | Liga MX | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
CF Pachuca vs Necaxa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.2%, draw 24.2%, away 20.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.68 | 3.84 | 4.49 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.75 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 4.05 | 4.75 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.72 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.66 | 3.84 | 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.73 | 4.14 | 4.61 |
| SBO | 1.69 | 3.54 | 3.96 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.69 ▲ +0.07
X
3.87 ▼ -0.07
2
4.55 ▼ -0.20
18 snapshots recorded, from .