U.N.A.M. - Pumas
vs
Cruz Azul
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cruz Azul
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul overview
Garuda Lions analysis: U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul
| Probability | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Draw | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.9% | 26.0% | 40.0% |
| Market | 27.6% | 25.8% | 46.6% |
| Final | 29.2% | 25.9% | 45.0% |
| Edge | +6.4% | +0.2% | -6.6% |
Why Cruz Azul
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul match preview
U.N.A.M. - Pumas faces Cruz Azul in what promises to be a competitive Liga MX clash. The probabilities suggest a 29% chance of a U.N.A.M. - Pumas victory, a 26% likelihood of a draw, and a 45% chance for Cruz Azul to win. The expected goals indicate a close match, with U.N.A.M. - Pumas projected at 1.47 and Cruz Azul at 1.61. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability.
Recent form shows U.N.A.M. - Pumas with a record of L-D-L-W-L-D, while Cruz Azul has D-L-W-W-W-L. In their last four encounters, U.N.A.M. - Pumas has secured 1 win, with Cruz Azul also achieving 1 win and 2 draws. The model indicates a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Cruz Azul expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.09
U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Cruz Azul attack and defence ratings
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Cruz Azul
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cruz Azul | 45.0% | 2.22 | -6.6% | 2.06 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 29.2% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Cruz Azul | 45.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.8% |
| No | 37.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cruz Azul win | 20.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 60.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-1 | 8.0% |
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul stats
U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Cruz Azul recent form
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas |
LDLWLD |
| Cruz Azul |
DLWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Cruz Azul season so far
U.N.A.M. - Pumas record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cruz Azul record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Cruz Azul | Liga MX | 1-2 |
| 2026-05-22 | Cruz Azul | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX | 0-0 |
| 2026-03-15 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Cruz Azul | Liga MX | 2-2 |
| 2025-11-09 | Cruz Azul | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.6%, draw 25.8%, away 46.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.44 | 3.52 | 1.98 |
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 3.75 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.40 | 3.65 | 2.02 |
| Betfair | 3.20 | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.06 |
| Marathonbet | 3.42 | 3.52 | 1.96 |
| Pinnacle | 3.52 | 3.66 | 2.03 |
| SBO | 2.97 | 3.15 | 2.02 |
| William Hill | 3.25 | 3.25 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .