Atletico San Luis
vs
Necaxa
3 – 1 Full time
| 10′ | Julián Carranza | ||
| 27′ | Felipe Mora | ||
| 54′ | Christopher Andrade | ||
| 59′ | Kevin AnteMiguel Rodriguez | ||
| 60′ | Javier RuizMatias Espindola | ||
| 60′ | Agustin OliverosMauro Zaleta | ||
| 72′ | Felipe MoraJohan Caicedo | ||
| 78′ | Rafael LlorenteLeonardo Flores | ||
| 78′ | David RodriguezSebastián Pérez Bouquet | ||
| 78′ | Juan ValenciaJuan Torres | ||
| 80′ | Pedro Pedraza | ||
| 81′ | Eduardo Aguila | ||
| 87′ | Alexis PeñaDanny Leyva | ||
| 90′ | Anderson DuarteRoberto Meraz | ||
| 90′ | Sebastien Salles-lamongeJuanpe | ||
| 90′ | Aldo Cruz |
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 59 | Possession % | 41 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 499 | Accurate passes | 330 |
Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa
| Probability | Atletico San Luis | Draw | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.2% | 27.6% | 29.2% |
| Market | 43.1% | 26.6% | 30.3% |
| Final | 43.1% | 26.9% | 30.0% |
| Edge | +0.1% | +1.0% | -1.1% |
Why Atletico San Luis
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 1.22.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico San Luis and Necaxa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.74
Atletico San Luis and Necaxa attack and defence ratings
Atletico San Luis
Necaxa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa: result vs prediction
Atletico San Luis 3 – 1 Necaxa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico San Luis | 43.1% | 2.32 | +0.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.7% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico San Luis | 43.1% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Necaxa | 30.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.3% |
| No | 43.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico San Luis win | 22.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 56.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 1-0 | 8.6% |
Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa stats
Atletico San Luis and Necaxa recent form
| Atletico San Luis |
LLWDLD |
| Necaxa |
LDLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico San Luis and Necaxa going into this match
Atletico San Luis record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Necaxa record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Necaxa | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX | 4-1 |
| 2025-12-23 | Necaxa | Atletico San Luis | Friendlies Clubs | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Atletico San Luis | Necaxa | Liga MX | 3-4 |
| 2025-01-25 | Atletico San Luis | Necaxa | Liga MX | 0-3 |
| 2024-11-07 | Necaxa | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX | 1-1 |
| 2024-03-09 | Necaxa | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX | 3-1 |
| 2023-10-23 | Atletico San Luis | Necaxa | Liga MX | 4-0 |
| 2023-06-23 | Atletico San Luis | Necaxa | Friendlies Clubs | 2-2 |
| 2023-01-07 | Necaxa | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX | 2-3 |
| 2022-08-07 | Atletico San Luis | Necaxa | Liga MX | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.4%, draw 26.8%, away 30.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.16 | 3.48 | 3.04 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.45 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.14 | 3.48 | 3.02 |
| Pinnacle | 2.20 | 3.78 | 3.18 |
| SBO | 2.22 | 3.26 | 2.84 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.30 | 2.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .