CF Pachuca
vs
Guadalajara Chivas
1 – 1 Full time
CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas
| Probability | CF Pachuca | Draw | Guadalajara Chivas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.9% | 30.3% | 37.8% |
| Market | 29.2% | 27.0% | 43.8% |
| Final | 29.8% | 27.9% | 42.3% |
| Edge | +2.7% | +3.3% | -6.0% |
Why Guadalajara Chivas
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
CF Pachuca and Guadalajara Chivas expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.39
CF Pachuca and Guadalajara Chivas attack and defence ratings
CF Pachuca
Guadalajara Chivas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas: result vs prediction
CF Pachuca 1 – 1 Guadalajara Chivas
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 42.3% | 2.36 | -6.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.3% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CF Pachuca | 29.8% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Guadalajara Chivas | 42.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.7% |
| No | 50.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Guadalajara Chivas win | 17.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 62.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-0 | 10.5% | |
| 0-1 | 10.2% |
CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas stats
CF Pachuca and Guadalajara Chivas recent form
| CF Pachuca |
DLWLLL |
| Guadalajara Chivas |
WWWLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
CF Pachuca and Guadalajara Chivas going into this match
CF Pachuca record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Guadalajara Chivas record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | Guadalajara Chivas | CF Pachuca | Liga MX | 2-0 |
| 2025-11-03 | CF Pachuca | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.2%, draw 27.0%, away 43.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.05 | 3.55 | 2.18 |
| 1xBet | 3.30 | 3.35 | 2.12 |
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 3.13 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.20 | 3.45 | 2.18 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.25 | 3.55 | 2.17 |
| Marathonbet | 3.28 | 3.35 | 2.10 |
| Pinnacle | 3.38 | 3.49 | 2.13 |
| SBO | 2.97 | 3.13 | 2.11 |
| Superbet | 3.20 | 3.45 | 2.17 |
| Unibet | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.18 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .