Guadalajara Chivas
vs
Club Tijuana
5 – 2 Full time
Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Tijuana overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Tijuana
| Probability | Guadalajara Chivas | Draw | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.1% | 33.5% | 23.4% |
| Market | 63.6% | 21.2% | 15.2% |
| Final | 58.5% | 24.3% | 17.2% |
| Edge | -20.5% | +12.2% | +8.3% |
Why Guadalajara Chivas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.14 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Guadalajara Chivas and Club Tijuana expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.92
Guadalajara Chivas and Club Tijuana attack and defence ratings
Guadalajara Chivas
Club Tijuana
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Tijuana: result vs prediction
Guadalajara Chivas 5 – 2 Club Tijuana
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Tijuana markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 58.5% | 1.71 | -20.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.8% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 58.5% |
| Draw | 24.3% | |
| Club Tijuana | 17.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.0% |
| No | 62.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Guadalajara Chivas win | 18.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 56.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.0% |
| 1-0 | 15.5% | |
| 1-1 | 14.3% |
Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Tijuana stats
Guadalajara Chivas and Club Tijuana recent form
| Guadalajara Chivas |
WWLDDW |
| Club Tijuana |
WLLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Guadalajara Chivas and Club Tijuana going into this match
Guadalajara Chivas record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Club Tijuana record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Tijuana head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Guadalajara Chivas | Club Tijuana | Liga MX | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Club Tijuana | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX | 3-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Tijuana odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 63.6%, draw 21.2%, away 15.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.49 | 4.30 | 6.20 |
| 1xBet | 1.46 | 4.40 | 6.19 |
| 888Sport | 1.44 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 4.33 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.40 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.52 | 4.65 | 6.50 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 4.50 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.49 | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.45 | 4.40 | 6.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.50 | 4.73 | 6.20 |
| SBO | 1.43 | 4.05 | 5.61 |
| Superbet | 1.49 | 4.50 | 5.90 |
| Unibet | 1.47 | 4.25 | 6.00 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .