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US Open Cup · Full time ·Semi-finals

Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew

2 – 1 Full time

9′J. Martinez
40′M. Ojeda
46′J. GerbetW. Cartagena
48′T. Habroune
52′B. Mendez
54′A. GriezmannD. Dike
59′A. ZarouryL. Giaccone
60′Z. TaifiT. Spicer
74′J. MartinezG. Tapia
74′A. GomesD. Chambost
75′W. Cartagena
76′B. LennonA. Herrera
78′J. EllisM. Pasalic

ScottsMiracle-Gro FieldReferee: A. Da Silva

Orlando City SC 52%
Draw 24%
Columbus Crew 24%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityOrlando City SCDrawColumbus Crew
Model67.3%19.3%13.4%
Market46.5%25.6%27.9%
Final51.7%24.0%24.3%
Edge+20.8%-6.2%-14.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Orlando City SC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.00.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Orlando City SC below the model: +20.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Orlando City S ↓ / Columbus Crew → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 9% 2 10% 10% 5% 3 8% 8% 4+ 8% 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 66%
No goals 4%

Orlando City SC and Columbus Crew expected goals

Orlando City SC 2.39
Columbus Crew 1.00

Total expected goals: 3.39

Orlando City SC and Columbus Crew attack and defence ratings

Orlando City SC

Attack 1.20 +20%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Columbus Crew

Attack 0.84 -16%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew: result vs prediction

Orlando City SC 2 – 1 Columbus Crew

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Semi-finals fixtures

US Open Cup

Before and after this match

Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Orlando City SC 51.7% 1.93 +20.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 65.9% 1.52 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.3% 1.71 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.0% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Orlando City SC win 45.7% 2.19 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Orlando City SC51.7%
Draw24.0%
Columbus Crew24.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565.9%
Under 2.534.1%
Both teams to scoreYes58.3%
No41.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)75.7%
12 (either side)76.0%
X2 (draw or away)48.3%
Handicap -1Orlando City SC win45.7%
Push (exactly one goal)21.6%
Loss32.7%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.6%
2-09.6%
1-18.9%

Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew stats

Orlando City SC and Columbus Crew recent form

newest first
Orlando City SC WWWDWL
Columbus Crew LLWLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Orlando City SC wins 3Draws 3Columbus Crew wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-12Columbus CrewOrlando City SCMajor League Soccer1-1
2025-10-04Orlando City SCColumbus CrewMajor League Soccer1-1
2025-07-25Columbus CrewOrlando City SCMajor League Soccer1-3
2024-09-21Columbus CrewOrlando City SCMajor League Soccer4-3
2024-05-25Orlando City SCColumbus CrewMajor League Soccer0-2
2023-11-25Orlando City SCColumbus CrewMajor League Soccer0-2
2023-09-16Orlando City SCColumbus CrewMajor League Soccer4-3
2023-05-13Columbus CrewOrlando City SCMajor League Soccer2-2
2022-10-09Orlando City SCColumbus CrewMajor League Soccer2-1
2022-04-16Columbus CrewOrlando City SCMajor League Soccer0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 46.5%, draw 25.6%, away 27.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.00 3.52 3.52
Bet365 1.91 3.50 3.50
BetVictor 1.95 3.75 3.20
Betano 2.07 3.55 3.15
Betfair 1.91 3.60 3.25
Marathonbet 1.98 3.52 3.52
Pinnacle 2.04 3.61 3.65
SBO 1.94 3.45 3.09
William Hill 1.95 3.60 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.95 ▼ -0.01
X 3.55 ▲ +0.13
2 3.25 ▼ -0.26

6 snapshots recorded, from .