Major League Soccer
·
Full time
·Matchday 26
St. Louis City
vs
Toronto FC
3 – 1 Full time
| 23′ | W. Zimmerman | ||
| 28′ | C. Wallem | ||
| 41′ | C. Holse | ||
| 46′ | S. JeongS. Becher | ||
| 54′ | T. Totland | ||
| 57′ | W. ZimmermanN. Gomis | ||
| 63′ | D. EtienneZ. Monlouis | ||
| 63′ | N. DorschJ. Osorio | ||
| 63′ | M. CimermancicT. Corbeanu | ||
| 68′ | S. Becher | ||
| 73′ | F. Fall | ||
| 74′ | A. Coello | ||
| 75′ | J. SargentL. Morgan | ||
| 78′ | C. WallemD. Polvara | ||
| 79′ | A. MatanD. Edelman | ||
| 85′ | Rafael NavarroD. Downs | ||
| 90′ | C. HolseT. Ostrak | ||
| 90′ | T. Corbeanu |
St. Louis City
59%
Draw
21%
Toronto FC
19%
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 61 | Possession % | 39 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 1 | Saves | 5 |
| 399 | Accurate passes | 229 |
St. Louis City vs Toronto FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: St. Louis City vs Toronto FC
| Probability | St. Louis City | Draw | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.9% | 19.2% | 18.8% |
| Market | 58.3% | 22.2% | 19.5% |
| Final | 59.2% | 21.5% | 19.3% |
| Edge | +3.6% | -3.0% | -0.7% |
Why St. Louis City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.57 vs 1.41.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices St. Louis City below the model: +3.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
97%
2+ goals
91%
3+ goals
76%
No goals
3%
St. Louis City and Toronto FC expected goals
St. Louis City
2.57
Toronto FC
1.41
Total expected goals: 3.97
St. Louis City and Toronto FC attack and defence ratings
St. Louis City
Attack
1.28 +28%
Defence
1.04 +4%
Toronto FC
Attack
0.99 -1%
Defence
1.16 +16%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
St. Louis City vs Toronto FC: result vs prediction
St. Louis City 3 – 1 Toronto FC
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
- New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls — team news & stats
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC
- New England Revolution v Orlando City SC — match page
- CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew — team news & stats
- DC United vs Charlotte
- FC Dallas v Austin — match page
- Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati — team news & stats
- Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union
Before and after this match
St. Louis City vs Toronto FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Louis City | 59.2% | 1.69 | +3.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.7% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | St. Louis City win | 41.8% | 2.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Louis City | 59.2% |
| Draw | 21.5% | |
| Toronto FC | 19.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.4% |
| No | 29.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Louis City win | 41.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 38.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.7% |
| 3-1 | 7.5% | |
| 1-1 | 7.5% |
St. Louis City vs Toronto FC stats
St. Louis City and Toronto FC recent form
| St. Louis City |
LWDWDW |
| Toronto FC |
LWDDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
St. Louis City and Toronto FC going into this match
St. Louis City record
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toronto FC record
- They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
St. Louis City vs Toronto FC head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
1St. Louis City wins
0Draws
0Toronto FC wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-07-08 | Toronto FC | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
St. Louis City vs Toronto FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.4%, draw 22.0%, away 19.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.33 | 4.75 |
| Marathonbet | 1.58 | 4.25 | 4.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.62 | 4.53 | 4.85 |
| SBO | 1.60 | 3.68 | 3.98 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.62 ▼ -0.08
X
4.25 ▲ +0.15
2
4.85 ▲ +0.70
13 snapshots recorded, from .