Major League Soccer
·
Full time
·Matchday 27
New York Red Bulls
vs
St. Louis City
0 – 3 Full time
| 5′ | Rafael Navarro Leal | ||
| 35′ | Timo Baumgartl | ||
| 63′ | Devin PadelfordConnor Faello | ||
| 64′ | Jorge RuvalcabaPedro Castro | ||
| 71′ | Alexandru MăţanSimon Becher | ||
| 71′ | Carlo HolseSang-bin Jung | ||
| 84′ | Sekou KoneNate Worth | ||
| 85′ | Daniel EdelmanLukas MacNaughton | ||
| 85′ | Rafael Navarro LealTomas Ostrak | ||
| 86′ | Emil Forsberg | ||
| 87′ | Mohammed SofoAndy Rojas Maroto | ||
| 87′ | Tim ParkerRobert Voloder | ||
| 87′ | Simon Becher | ||
| 90′ | Tomas Ostrak |
New York Red Bulls
27%
Draw
24%
St. Louis City
48%
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 45 | Possession % | 55 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Offsides | 4 |
| 5 | Saves | 4 |
| 340 | Accurate passes | 413 |
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City
| Probability | New York Red Bulls | Draw | St. Louis City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.3% | 27.4% | 43.3% |
| Market | 26.9% | 22.9% | 50.2% |
| Final | 27.5% | 24.0% | 48.5% |
| Edge | +2.5% | +4.4% | -6.9% |
Why St. Louis City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.24.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
78%
3+ goals
53%
No goals
7%
New York Red Bulls and St. Louis City expected goals
New York Red Bulls
1.24
St. Louis City
1.55
Total expected goals: 2.79
New York Red Bulls and St. Louis City attack and defence ratings
New York Red Bulls
Attack
0.71 -29%
Defence
0.84 -16%
St. Louis City
Attack
1.35 +35%
Defence
1.00 +0%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City: result vs prediction
New York Red Bulls 0 – 3 St. Louis City
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
- Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC
- Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC — team news & stats
- CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati
- Charlotte v Chicago Fire — match page
- Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United FC — team news & stats
- FC Dallas vs Los Angeles FC
- Houston Dynamo v Sporting Kansas City — match page
- Nashville SC vs Toronto FC — team news & stats
Before and after this match
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Louis City | 48.5% | 2.06 | -6.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New York Red Bulls | 27.5% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| St. Louis City | 48.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% |
| No | 42.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Louis City win | 22.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 56.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | |
| 0-1 | 8.3% |
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City stats
New York Red Bulls and St. Louis City recent form
| New York Red Bulls |
WWLDLD |
| St. Louis City |
WLWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
New York Red Bulls and St. Louis City going into this match
New York Red Bulls record
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
St. Louis City record
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
1New York Red Bulls wins
1Draws
1St. Louis City wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | New York Red Bulls | St. Louis City | Friendlies Clubs | 3-1 |
| 2025-01-29 | New York Red Bulls | St. Louis City | Friendlies Clubs | 0-1 |
| 2024-02-10 | St. Louis City | New York Red Bulls | Friendlies Clubs | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.9%, draw 22.9%, away 50.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 4.20 | 1.85 |
| BetVictor | 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.85 |
| Betano | 3.55 | 4.15 | 1.90 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 4.10 | 1.90 |
| Marathonbet | 3.44 | 4.10 | 1.85 |
| Pinnacle | 3.60 | 4.25 | 1.92 |
| SBO | 3.11 | 3.66 | 1.95 |
| William Hill | 3.25 | 3.90 | 1.85 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.50 ▲ +1.00
X
4.10 ▲ +0.28
2
1.88 ▼ -0.54
25 snapshots recorded, from .