St. Louis City
vs
Los Angeles Galaxy
Garuda Lions Prediction: St. Louis City
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy overview
Garuda Lions analysis: St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy
| Probability | St. Louis City | Draw | Los Angeles Galaxy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.3% | 18.8% | 14.9% |
| Market | 58.2% | 21.0% | 20.8% |
| Final | 60.2% | 20.5% | 19.3% |
| Edge | +8.1% | -2.2% | -5.9% |
Why St. Louis City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices St. Louis City below the model: +8.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy match preview
St. Louis City enters the match against Los Angeles Galaxy with a strong probability of winning at 60%, bolstered by their recent form of three wins, one draw, and one loss. The expected goals for St. Louis City stand at 2.53, indicating a potent attacking threat, while Los Angeles Galaxy's expected goals are significantly lower at 1.16. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of St. Louis City, with a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% likelihood of both teams scoring.
In their last three encounters, St. Louis City has been dominant, securing two wins and one draw against Los Angeles Galaxy, who have yet to register a victory in this matchup. The Galaxy's recent form shows two wins, one draw, and two losses, suggesting they may struggle against a confident St. Louis side. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a blend of model probabilities and market odds.
St. Louis City and Los Angeles Galaxy team news
St. Louis City news
- Celio Pompeu — knee injury
- K. Hiebert — hip injury
Los Angeles Galaxy news
- H. Lozano — hamstring injury
- Joao Klauss — injury
- R. Puig — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
St. Louis City and Los Angeles Galaxy expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.69
St. Louis City and Los Angeles Galaxy attack and defence ratings
St. Louis City
Los Angeles Galaxy
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v Columbus Crew — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake — team news & stats
- New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
- Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats
- Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo
- Austin v Nashville SC — match page
- Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes — team news & stats
- Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Before and after this match
St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Louis City | 60.2% | 1.66 | +8.1% | 1.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.7% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | St. Louis City win | 45.6% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Louis City | 60.2% |
| Draw | 20.5% | |
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 19.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.0% |
| No | 36.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Louis City win | 45.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 33.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.3% |
| 1-1 | 8.1% | |
| 2-0 | 8.0% |
St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy stats
St. Louis City and Los Angeles Galaxy recent form
| St. Louis City |
WWLWDW |
| Los Angeles Galaxy |
WWDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
St. Louis City and Los Angeles Galaxy season so far
St. Louis City record
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Los Angeles Galaxy record
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Los Angeles Galaxy | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer | 1-3 |
| 2025-06-14 | St. Louis City | Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer | 3-3 |
| 2025-03-09 | Los Angeles Galaxy | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.2%, draw 21.0%, away 20.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 4.20 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 4.20 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.45 | 4.80 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.50 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.65 | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 4.45 | 4.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.61 | 4.80 | 4.46 |
| SBO | 1.55 | 3.96 | 4.05 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 4.20 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
34 snapshots recorded, from .