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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 28

St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy

6 – 2 Full time

2′Carlo Holse
7′Carlo Holse
11′Kyogo FuruhashiKlauss
21′Carlo Holse
31′Robert Taylor
39′Christopher Durkin
45′Rafael Navarro Leal
45′Lukas MacNaughton
45′Sergi RobertoLucas Agustin·Sanabria Magole
53′Rafael Navarro Leal
60′Robert TaylorJoseph Paintsil
60′Pablo RuizMarco Reus
63′Conrad Wallem
67′Bernardi Julian Ezequiel Aude
71′Klauss
72′Christopher DurkinFallou Fall
74′Harbor Miller
75′Erik ThommyCarlos Emiro Garces Torres
80′Rafael Navarro LealSimon Becher
80′Carlo HolseSang-bin Jung
80′Conrad WallemJaziel Alberto Orozco Landeros
90′Alexandru MăţanDamion Downs

Citypark, Saint LouisReferee: Joseph Dickerson

St. Louis City 64%
Draw 19%
Los Angeles Galaxy 17%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 18
6 Shots on target 7
59 Possession % 41
2 Corners 3
17 Fouls 10
3 Offsides 1
5 Saves 0
546 Accurate passes 337

St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy overview

Garuda Lions analysis: St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySt. Louis CityDrawLos Angeles Galaxy
Model66.2%18.9%14.9%
Market63.4%19.5%17.1%
Final64.1%19.4%16.5%
Edge+0.7%-0.2%-0.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why St. Louis City

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.79 vs 0.97.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

St. Louis City ↓ / Los Angeles Ga → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 7% 2 9% 9% 3 8% 8% 4+ 12% 11%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 3%

St. Louis City and Los Angeles Galaxy expected goals

St. Louis City 2.79
Los Angeles Galaxy 0.97

Total expected goals: 3.76

St. Louis City and Los Angeles Galaxy attack and defence ratings

St. Louis City

Attack 1.54 +54%
Defence 0.75 -25%

Los Angeles Galaxy

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy: result vs prediction

St. Louis City 6 – 2 Los Angeles Galaxy

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 28 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 St. Louis City 64.1% 1.56 +0.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 71.2% 1.40 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.9% 1.56 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.5% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 St. Louis City win 54.9% 1.82 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2St. Louis City64.1%
Draw19.4%
Los Angeles Galaxy16.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571.2%
Under 2.528.8%
Both teams to scoreYes63.9%
No36.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.5%
12 (either side)80.6%
X2 (draw or away)35.9%
Handicap -1St. Louis City win54.9%
Push (exactly one goal)19.7%
Loss25.5%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.3%
1-18.1%
2-08.0%

St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy stats

St. Louis City and Los Angeles Galaxy recent form

newest first
St. Louis City WWWWDW
Los Angeles Galaxy WWDLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

St. Louis City and Los Angeles Galaxy going into this match

league record before kick-off

St. Louis City record

  • They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Los Angeles Galaxy record

  • They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4St. Louis City wins 4Draws 2Los Angeles Galaxy wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-23Los Angeles GalaxySt. Louis CityMajor League Soccer1-3
2026-02-11Los Angeles GalaxySt. Louis CityFriendlies Clubs3-0
2025-06-14St. Louis CityLos Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer3-3
2025-03-09Los Angeles GalaxySt. Louis CityMajor League Soccer0-3
2024-09-01St. Louis CityLos Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer2-1
2024-03-17Los Angeles GalaxySt. Louis CityMajor League Soccer3-3
2024-02-03St. Louis CityLos Angeles GalaxyFriendlies Clubs2-1
2023-09-11Los Angeles GalaxySt. Louis CityMajor League Soccer2-2
2023-06-11St. Louis CityLos Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer1-1
2023-02-08St. Louis CityLos Angeles GalaxyFriendlies Clubs1-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 63.4%, draw 19.5%, away 17.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 1.48 4.50 6.50
BetVictor 1.45 4.80 5.75
Betano 1.57 4.85 5.60
Betfair 1.47 4.75 5.50
Dafabet 1.53 4.90 5.40
Marathonbet 1.47 4.80 5.35
Pinnacle 1.50 5.21 5.59
SBO 1.46 4.29 4.84
William Hill 1.50 4.50 4.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.48 ▼ -0.07
X 4.80 ▲ +0.47
2 5.50 ▲ +0.35

38 snapshots recorded, from .