Orlando City SC
vs
Columbus Crew
Garuda Lions Prediction: Orlando City SC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew
| Probability | Orlando City SC | Draw | Columbus Crew |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.3% | 23.3% | 28.4% |
| Market | 45.6% | 24.3% | 30.1% |
| Final | 46.3% | 24.0% | 29.7% |
| Edge | +2.7% | -1.0% | -1.7% |
Why Orlando City SC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.52.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Orlando City SC below the model: +2.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.14, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew match preview
Orlando City SC faces Columbus Crew in a Major League Soccer matchup with Orlando holding a 46% probability of winning compared to Columbus's 30%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Orlando, with a 9% chance of occurring. Both teams are expected to score, with a 69% probability for over 2.5 goals in the match, indicating a potentially high-scoring affair.
Recent form shows Orlando City SC with two losses followed by three consecutive wins, while Columbus Crew comes off a win, but has experienced two losses in their last three matches. In their last ten encounters, Orlando has secured four wins, while Columbus has three, with three matches ending in draws. The expected goals are 2.01 for Orlando and 1.53 for Columbus, suggesting a competitive match ahead.
Orlando City SC and Columbus Crew team news
Orlando City SC news
- B. Ojeda — foot injury
- T. Spicer — foot injury
Columbus Crew news
- W. Abou Ali — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Orlando City SC and Columbus Crew expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.54
Orlando City SC and Columbus Crew attack and defence ratings
Orlando City SC
Columbus Crew
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake — team news & stats
- New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
- Atlanta United FC v FC Cincinnati — match page
- New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats
- Inter Miami vs DC United
- Charlotte v FC Dallas — match page
- Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats
- Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo
Before and after this match
Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orlando City SC | 46.3% | 2.16 | +2.7% | 2.14 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.7% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orlando City SC | 46.3% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Columbus Crew | 29.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.7% |
| No | 31.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Orlando City SC win | 28.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 51.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew stats
Orlando City SC and Columbus Crew recent form
| Orlando City SC |
LLWWWW |
| Columbus Crew |
WWLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Orlando City SC and Columbus Crew season so far
Orlando City SC record
- They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Columbus Crew record
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Orlando City SC | Columbus Crew | US Open Cup | 2-1 |
| 2026-09-16 | Columbus Crew | Orlando City SC | US Open Cup | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Columbus Crew | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Orlando City SC | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-25 | Columbus Crew | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer | 1-3 |
| 2024-09-21 | Columbus Crew | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer | 4-3 |
| 2024-05-25 | Orlando City SC | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer | 0-2 |
| 2023-11-25 | Orlando City SC | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer | 0-2 |
| 2023-09-16 | Orlando City SC | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer | 4-3 |
| 2023-05-13 | Columbus Crew | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.6%, draw 24.3%, away 30.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.90 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.85 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.14 | 3.90 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.04 | 3.84 | 3.08 |
| Pinnacle | 2.05 | 4.02 | 3.18 |
| SBO | 2.11 | 3.32 | 2.66 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
34 snapshots recorded, from .