Garuda Lions
Today
Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 28

Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew

3 – 2 Full time

1′Harvey Graham Sarajian
3′Vinicius Nogueira
7′Taha Habroune
16′Antoine Griezmann
21′Taha Habroune
23′Robin Jansson
36′Brais Méndez
41′David Brekalo
45′Harvey Graham SarajianBernardo Rhein
52′Vinicius NogueiraZakaria Taifi
53′Brais Méndez
59′Marco Pašalić
62′Eduard AtuestaLuis Otávio Costa de Aquino
62′Marco PašalićDaryl Dike
70′Josef MartínezGonzalo Tapia
70′Dylan ChambostAndré Gomes
83′David BrekaloJustin Ellis
83′Anass ZarouryBrooks Lennon
83′Taha HabrouneSekou Tidiany Bangoura
89′Iván Angulo
90′Mohamed FarsiMarcelo Andrés Herrera

Exploria Stadium, OrlandoReferee: Rosendo Mendoza

Orlando City SC 48%
Draw 24%
Columbus Crew 29%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

20 Shots 27
8 Shots on target 15
47 Possession % 53
2 Corners 11
14 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 5
12 Saves 5
348 Accurate passes 395

Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityOrlando City SCDrawColumbus Crew
Model48.3%23.3%28.4%
Market47.4%23.9%28.7%
Final47.6%23.8%28.6%
Edge+0.2%-0.2%-0.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Orlando City S ↓ / Columbus Crew → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 8% 2 8% 7% 3 5% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 68%
No goals 4%

Orlando City SC and Columbus Crew expected goals

Orlando City SC 1.83
Columbus Crew 1.67

Total expected goals: 3.50

Orlando City SC and Columbus Crew attack and defence ratings

Orlando City SC

Attack 1.16 +16%
Defence 1.24 +24%

Columbus Crew

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew: result vs prediction

Orlando City SC 3 – 2 Columbus Crew

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 28 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Orlando City SC 47.6% 2.10 +0.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 68.6% 1.46 — —
Both teams to score Yes 68.7% 1.46 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.2% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 58.7% 1.70 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Orlando City SC47.6%
Draw23.8%
Columbus Crew28.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568.6%
Under 2.531.4%
Both teams to scoreYes68.7%
No31.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.4%
12 (either side)76.2%
X2 (draw or away)52.4%
Handicap -1Orlando City SC win22.7%
Push (exactly one goal)18.6%
Loss58.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.8%
2-19.0%
2-26.8%

Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew stats

Orlando City SC and Columbus Crew recent form

newest first
Orlando City SC LLLWWW
Columbus Crew WWWLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Orlando City SC and Columbus Crew going into this match

league record before kick-off

Orlando City SC record

  • They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Columbus Crew record

  • They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Orlando City SC wins 3Draws 4Columbus Crew wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-16Columbus CrewOrlando City SCUS Open Cup2-1
2026-04-12Columbus CrewOrlando City SCMajor League Soccer1-1
2025-10-04Orlando City SCColumbus CrewMajor League Soccer1-1
2025-07-25Columbus CrewOrlando City SCMajor League Soccer1-3
2024-09-21Columbus CrewOrlando City SCMajor League Soccer4-3
2024-05-25Orlando City SCColumbus CrewMajor League Soccer0-2
2023-11-25Orlando City SCColumbus CrewMajor League Soccer0-2
2023-09-16Orlando City SCColumbus CrewMajor League Soccer4-3
2023-05-13Columbus CrewOrlando City SCMajor League Soccer2-2
2022-10-09Orlando City SCColumbus CrewMajor League Soccer2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.4%, draw 23.9%, away 28.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 1.95 3.90 3.50
BetVictor 1.95 4.00 3.25
Betano 2.07 3.90 3.25
Betfair 1.95 4.10 3.30
Dafabet 2.05 4.00 3.30
Marathonbet 1.97 3.90 3.22
Pinnacle 1.99 4.09 3.42
SBO 1.98 3.65 3.04
William Hill 1.95 3.70 3.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.97 ▼ -0.06
X 3.90 ▲ +0.10
2 3.25 ▲ +0.13

36 snapshots recorded, from .