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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 28

Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati

1 – 3 Full time

2′Teenage Hadebe
43′Tomás Jacob
52′Kevin Denkey
56′Ajani FortuneAleksey Miranchuk
60′David DouděraEnder Jesús Echenique Peña
69′Miguel Almirón
72′Tyrell MalaciaBryan Ramirez
72′Miles RobinsonJulian Malatini
78′Obinna NwobodoTah Anunga
78′Samuel Mawuena GidiGerardo Valenzuela
84′Tom Barlow
86′Giuliano GaloppoFafà Picault
86′Tristan MuyumbaCooper Sanchez
88′Julian Malatini
90′Elías BáezSergi Santos
90′Tom Barlow
90′Mauricio Amaro
90′Kevin Denkey

Atlanta Stadium, AtlantaReferee: Fotis Bazakos

Atlanta United FC 43%
Draw 24%
FC Cincinnati 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

16 Shots 13
6 Shots on target 4
56 Possession % 44
5 Corners 4
8 Fouls 14
7 Offsides 1
0 Saves 5
428 Accurate passes 327

Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtlanta United FCDrawFC Cincinnati
Model50.8%22.4%26.7%
Market40.9%24.2%35.0%
Final43.4%23.8%32.9%
Edge+2.5%-0.4%-2.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Atlanta United FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.53.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Atlanta United FC below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atlanta United ↓ / FC Cincinnati → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 9% 6% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 6% 5% 4+ 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 71%
No goals 3%

Atlanta United FC and FC Cincinnati expected goals

Atlanta United FC 2.14
FC Cincinnati 1.53

Total expected goals: 3.68

Atlanta United FC and FC Cincinnati attack and defence ratings

Atlanta United FC

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 1.04 +4%

FC Cincinnati

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 1.39 +39%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati: result vs prediction

Atlanta United FC 1 – 3 FC Cincinnati

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 28 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atlanta United FC 43.4% 2.31 +2.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 71.1% 1.41 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.1% 1.43 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.2% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.1% 2.04 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atlanta United FC43.4%
Draw23.8%
FC Cincinnati32.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571.1%
Under 2.528.9%
Both teams to scoreYes70.1%
No29.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.1%
12 (either side)76.2%
X2 (draw or away)56.6%
Handicap -1Atlanta United FC win30.9%
Push (exactly one goal)20.0%
Loss49.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.1%
2-18.9%
2-26.8%

Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati stats

Atlanta United FC and FC Cincinnati recent form

newest first
Atlanta United FC DWDLDL
FC Cincinnati LDDLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atlanta United FC and FC Cincinnati going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atlanta United FC record

  • They have won 7 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

FC Cincinnati record

  • They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Atlanta United FC wins 5Draws 4FC Cincinnati wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-21FC CincinnatiAtlanta United FCMajor League Soccer2-0
2025-05-25Atlanta United FCFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer4-2
2025-03-22FC CincinnatiAtlanta United FCMajor League Soccer2-2
2025-02-12Atlanta United FCFC CincinnatiFriendlies Clubs2-2
2024-05-15FC CincinnatiAtlanta United FCMajor League Soccer1-0
2024-04-20Atlanta United FCFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer1-2
2023-10-22FC CincinnatiAtlanta United FCMajor League Soccer2-2
2023-08-30Atlanta United FCFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer1-2
2022-08-13FC CincinnatiAtlanta United FCMajor League Soccer2-2
2022-04-16Atlanta United FCFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 40.9%, draw 24.2%, away 35.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 2.30 3.80 2.80
BetVictor 2.25 3.90 2.70
Betano 2.32 3.95 2.75
Betfair 2.38 4.00 2.63
Dafabet 2.33 4.00 2.80
Marathonbet 2.31 3.82 2.62
Pinnacle 2.31 4.12 2.75
SBO 2.20 3.68 2.61
William Hill 2.25 3.70 2.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.31 ▲ +0.01
X 3.90 ▲ +0.10
2 2.70 ▲ +0.08

36 snapshots recorded, from .