Atlanta United FC
vs
FC Cincinnati
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atlanta United FC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati
| Probability | Atlanta United FC | Draw | FC Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.8% | 22.4% | 26.7% |
| Market | 39.1% | 24.4% | 36.4% |
| Final | 42.1% | 23.9% | 34.0% |
| Edge | +11.7% | -2.0% | -9.7% |
Why Atlanta United FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.53.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Atlanta United FC below the model: +11.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati match preview
Atlanta United FC faces FC Cincinnati in a matchup where the model gives Atlanta a 43% chance of winning, while FC Cincinnati has a 33% probability. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Atlanta, with a 9% likelihood. The model indicates a strong expectation for goals, with over 2.5 goals predicted at 71% and both teams to score at 70%.
In terms of recent form, Atlanta United FC has recorded two draws, one win, two losses, and one draw in their last six matches. Conversely, FC Cincinnati has struggled with one loss, three draws, and two losses in their recent outings. The expected goals are 2.14 for Atlanta United FC and 1.54 for FC Cincinnati, suggesting a competitive encounter.
Atlanta United FC and FC Cincinnati team news
Atlanta United FC news
FC Cincinnati news
- E. Echenique — inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atlanta United FC and FC Cincinnati expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.68
Atlanta United FC and FC Cincinnati attack and defence ratings
Atlanta United FC
FC Cincinnati
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v Columbus Crew — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake — team news & stats
- New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
- New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats
- Inter Miami vs DC United
- Charlotte v FC Dallas — match page
- Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats
- Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo
Before and after this match
Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlanta United FC | 42.1% | 2.38 | +11.7% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.2% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlanta United FC | 42.1% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| FC Cincinnati | 34.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.1% |
| No | 29.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atlanta United FC win | 30.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 49.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati stats
Atlanta United FC and FC Cincinnati recent form
| Atlanta United FC |
DWDLDL |
| FC Cincinnati |
LDDLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atlanta United FC and FC Cincinnati season so far
Atlanta United FC record
- They have won 7 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
FC Cincinnati record
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | FC Cincinnati | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-25 | Atlanta United FC | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer | 4-2 |
| 2025-03-22 | FC Cincinnati | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2025-02-12 | Atlanta United FC | FC Cincinnati | Friendlies Clubs | 2-2 |
| 2024-05-15 | FC Cincinnati | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2024-04-20 | Atlanta United FC | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2023-10-22 | FC Cincinnati | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2023-08-30 | Atlanta United FC | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2022-08-13 | FC Cincinnati | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2022-04-16 | Atlanta United FC | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.1%, draw 24.4%, away 36.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.90 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.45 | 3.90 | 2.60 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.45 | 3.95 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.41 | 3.80 | 2.52 |
| Pinnacle | 2.47 | 3.86 | 2.59 |
| SBO | 2.18 | 3.45 | 2.49 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
34 snapshots recorded, from .