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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 27

CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati

3 – 1 Full time

11′Brayan CeballosFabian Herbers
25′Daniel Rios
33′Matthew Longstaff
47′Fabian Herbers
58′Ayoub JabbariDavid Douděra
64′Tom Barlow
71′Roman Celentano
72′Prince-Osei Owusu
75′Prince-Osei Owusu
77′Bryan RamirezKristian Fletcher
77′Obinna NwobodoKyle Smith
86′Teenage Hadebe
86′Nick HagglundAlvas Powell
86′Samuel Mawuena GidiTah Anunga
87′Prince-Osei OwusuFrankie Amaya

Saputo Stadium, MontrealReferee: Ismail Elfath

CF Montreal 34%
Draw 25%
FC Cincinnati 41%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 18
5 Shots on target 4
45 Possession % 55
4 Corners 6
8 Fouls 7
2 Offsides 0
3 Saves 2
386 Accurate passes 470

CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati overview

Garuda Lions analysis: CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCF MontrealDrawFC Cincinnati
Model29.4%23.6%47.0%
Market35.7%24.9%39.4%
Final34.1%24.6%41.3%
Edge-6.3%-1.3%+7.6%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Cincinnati

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.53.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Cincinnati below the model: +7.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

CF Montreal ↓ / FC Cincinnati → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 6% 1 10% 9% 6% 2 7% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 68%
No goals 4%

CF Montreal and FC Cincinnati expected goals

CF Montreal 1.53
FC Cincinnati 1.96

Total expected goals: 3.50

CF Montreal and FC Cincinnati attack and defence ratings

CF Montreal

Attack 0.65 -35%
Defence 1.25 +25%

FC Cincinnati

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 1.36 +36%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati: result vs prediction

CF Montreal 3 – 1 FC Cincinnati

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 27 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Cincinnati 41.3% 2.42 +7.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 67.8% 1.47 — —
Both teams to score Yes 68.3% 1.46 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.4% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 53.0% 1.89 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2CF Montreal34.1%
Draw24.6%
FC Cincinnati41.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567.8%
Under 2.532.2%
Both teams to scoreYes68.3%
No31.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)58.7%
12 (either side)75.4%
X2 (draw or away)65.9%
Handicap -1FC Cincinnati win27.2%
Push (exactly one goal)19.8%
Loss53.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.0%
1-29.0%
2-17.0%

CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati stats

CF Montreal and FC Cincinnati recent form

newest first
CF Montreal LLLLLD
FC Cincinnati DDLLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

CF Montreal and FC Cincinnati going into this match

league record before kick-off

CF Montreal record

  • They have won 5 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Cincinnati record

  • They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3CF Montreal wins 1Draws 6FC Cincinnati wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-22FC CincinnatiCF MontrealMajor League Soccer4-3
2025-10-18FC CincinnatiCF MontrealMajor League Soccer3-0
2025-06-25CF MontrealFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer1-3
2025-01-24FC CincinnatiCF MontrealFriendlies Clubs1-0
2024-08-31FC CincinnatiCF MontrealMajor League Soccer4-1
2024-04-13CF MontrealFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer2-1
2023-09-20CF MontrealFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer1-1
2023-05-17FC CincinnatiCF MontrealMajor League Soccer3-0
2022-05-28CF MontrealFC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer4-3
2022-04-02FC CincinnatiCF MontrealMajor League Soccer3-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.7%, draw 24.9%, away 39.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 2.70 3.80 2.40
BetVictor 2.63 3.90 2.30
Betano 2.67 3.75 2.45
Betfair 2.55 4.00 2.40
Marathonbet 2.64 3.72 2.34
Pinnacle 2.77 3.88 2.42
SBO 2.53 3.62 2.28
William Hill 2.50 3.50 2.38

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.63 ▲ +0.08
X 3.77 ▼ -0.08
2 2.39 ▲ +0.01

18 snapshots recorded, from .