Major League Soccer
·
Full time
·Matchday 27
Austin
vs
San Diego
3 – 3 Full time
| 36′ | Žan KolmaničOleksandr Svatok | ||
| 45′ | David VazquezCédric Bakambu | ||
| 50′ | Aníbal Godoy | ||
| 57′ | Mikkel Desler | ||
| 64′ | Marcus Ingvartsen | ||
| 65′ | Oleksandr SvatokIlie Sánchez | ||
| 65′ | Besard SabovicJorge Alastuey | ||
| 73′ | Brandon Vazquez | ||
| 82′ | Christian Ramirez | ||
| 86′ | Christian Ramirez | ||
| 87′ | Christian Ramirez | ||
| 89′ | Ian MurphyAlejandro Alvarado Jr | ||
| 89′ | Oscar VerhoevenDagur Dan Þórhallsson | ||
| 90′ | Aníbal GodoyBryan Zamblé |
Austin
43%
Draw
26%
San Diego
31%
Match stats
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 42 | Possession % | 58 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 3 | Saves | 3 |
| 406 | Accurate passes | 620 |
Austin vs San Diego overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Austin vs San Diego
| Probability | Austin | Draw | San Diego |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.3% | 26.6% | 20.1% |
| Market | 39.3% | 26.0% | 34.7% |
| Final | 42.8% | 26.1% | 31.1% |
| Edge | +14.0% | +0.6% | -14.6% |
Why Austin
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 0.94.
- The market prices Austin below the model: +14.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
92%
2+ goals
75%
3+ goals
49%
No goals
8%
Austin and San Diego expected goals
Austin
1.67
San Diego
0.94
Total expected goals: 2.61
Austin and San Diego attack and defence ratings
Austin
Attack
0.82 -18%
Defence
0.73 -27%
San Diego
Attack
0.95 -5%
Defence
1.18 +18%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Austin vs San Diego: result vs prediction
Austin 3 – 3 San Diego
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
- Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC
- Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC — team news & stats
- CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati
- Charlotte v Chicago Fire — match page
- Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United FC — team news & stats
- FC Dallas vs Los Angeles FC
- Houston Dynamo v Sporting Kansas City — match page
- Nashville SC vs Toronto FC — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Austin vs San Diego markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Austin | 42.8% | 2.34 | +14.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.7% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Austin | 42.8% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| San Diego | 31.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.8% |
| No | 49.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Austin win | 29.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 46.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | |
| 2-0 | 10.2% |
Austin vs San Diego stats
Austin and San Diego recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Austin and San Diego going into this match
Austin record
- They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Diego record
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Austin vs San Diego head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
1Austin wins
0Draws
2San Diego wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | San Diego | Austin | Major League Soccer | 5-0 |
| 2025-06-01 | San Diego | Austin | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-23 | Austin | San Diego | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Austin vs San Diego odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.3%, draw 26.0%, away 34.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.42 | 3.65 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.39 | 3.52 | 2.68 |
| Pinnacle | 2.48 | 3.62 | 2.79 |
| SBO | 2.31 | 3.39 | 2.62 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.38 ▲ +0.18
X
3.61 ▼ -0.06
2
2.70 ▼ -0.18
18 snapshots recorded, from .