Austin
vs
Nashville SC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nashville SC
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Austin vs Nashville SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Austin vs Nashville SC
| Probability | Austin | Draw | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.7% | 29.3% | 44.0% |
| Market | 25.1% | 25.5% | 49.4% |
| Final | 25.5% | 26.4% | 48.0% |
| Edge | +1.5% | +3.8% | -5.3% |
Why Nashville SC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Austin vs Nashville SC match preview
Austin faces Nashville SC in an upcoming Major League Soccer match, with kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. The model indicates a 25% probability of an Austin victory, while Nashville SC is favored at 49%, with a 26% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at an 11% probability. Both teams have a 50% chance of scoring, and the expected goals are 1.04 for Austin and 1.41 for Nashville SC.
In terms of recent form, Austin has recorded two draws and three wins in their last six matches, while Nashville SC has achieved three wins, two draws, and one loss in the same period. Historically, in their last encounter, Nashville SC secured a win against Austin, who has yet to record a victory in this matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, reflecting a blend of model probabilities and market odds.
Austin and Nashville SC team news
Austin news
- J. Rosales — yellow cards
- P. Placheta — lower-body injury
- Z. Kolmanic — thigh injury
Nashville SC news
- W. Madrigal — lower-body injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Austin and Nashville SC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.45
Austin and Nashville SC attack and defence ratings
Austin
Nashville SC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v Columbus Crew — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake — team news & stats
- New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
- Atlanta United FC v FC Cincinnati — match page
- New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats
- Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats
- Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo
- Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Austin vs Nashville SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nashville SC | 48.0% | 2.08 | -5.3% | 1.96 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Austin | 25.5% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Nashville SC | 48.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.2% |
| No | 49.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nashville SC win | 21.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 56.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 0-1 | 10.9% | |
| 0-0 | 9.9% |
Austin vs Nashville SC stats
Austin and Nashville SC recent form
| Austin |
DDWDDW |
| Nashville SC |
WWDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Austin and Nashville SC season so far
Austin record
- They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nashville SC record
- They have won 17 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Austin vs Nashville SC head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | Austin | Nashville SC | US Open Cup | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Austin vs Nashville SC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.1%, draw 25.5%, away 49.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.85 |
| BetVictor | 3.75 | 3.70 | 1.87 |
| Betano | 3.80 | 3.70 | 1.93 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.80 | 1.91 |
| Dafabet | 3.80 | 3.75 | 1.96 |
| Marathonbet | 3.66 | 3.66 | 1.89 |
| Pinnacle | 3.76 | 3.74 | 1.93 |
| SBO | 3.34 | 3.20 | 1.86 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
34 snapshots recorded, from .