Major League Soccer
·
Full time
·Matchday 28
Austin
vs
Nashville SC
1 – 4 Full time
| 30′ | Reed Baker-Whiting | ||
| 37′ | Guilherme Biro | ||
| 45′ | Jon BellBrendan Hines-Ike | ||
| 60′ | Myrto UzuniChristian Ramirez | ||
| 61′ | Jorge AlastueyBesard Sabovic | ||
| 67′ | Elias Saad | ||
| 69′ | Elias SaadShakur Mohammed | ||
| 69′ | Mikkel DeslerPrzemyslaw Płacheta | ||
| 76′ | Patrick YazbekEdvard Sandvik Tagseth | ||
| 76′ | Andy NajarDaniel Lovitz | ||
| 76′ | Brandon Vazquez | ||
| 78′ | Shakur Mohammed | ||
| 83′ | Brian Schwake | ||
| 88′ | Shakur Mohammed | ||
| 89′ | Cristian Espinozajosh bauer | ||
| 90′ | matthew corcoranBryan Acosta | ||
| 90′ | Hany Mukhtar |
Austin
26%
Draw
26%
Nashville SC
48%
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 24 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 11 |
| 42 | Possession % | 58 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 5 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Offsides | 3 |
| 7 | Saves | 4 |
| 303 | Accurate passes | 440 |
Austin vs Nashville SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Austin vs Nashville SC
| Probability | Austin | Draw | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.7% | 29.3% | 44.0% |
| Market | 25.5% | 25.1% | 49.4% |
| Final | 25.8% | 26.2% | 48.0% |
| Edge | +0.3% | +1.0% | -1.3% |
Why Nashville SC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
90%
2+ goals
71%
3+ goals
44%
No goals
10%
Austin and Nashville SC expected goals
Austin
1.04
Nashville SC
1.40
Total expected goals: 2.45
Austin and Nashville SC attack and defence ratings
Austin
Attack
0.90 -10%
Defence
0.85 -15%
Nashville SC
Attack
1.21 +21%
Defence
0.66 -34%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Austin vs Nashville SC: result vs prediction
Austin 1 – 4 Nashville SC
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Toronto FC vs CF Montreal — team news & stats
- Chicago Fire vs New York City FC
- Orlando City SC v Columbus Crew — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake — team news & stats
- New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
- Atlanta United FC v FC Cincinnati — match page
- New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats
- Inter Miami vs DC United
Before and after this match
Austin vs Nashville SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nashville SC | 48.0% | 2.08 | -1.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Austin | 25.8% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Nashville SC | 48.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.2% |
| No | 49.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nashville SC win | 21.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 56.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 0-1 | 10.9% | |
| 0-0 | 9.9% |
Austin vs Nashville SC stats
Austin and Nashville SC recent form
| Austin |
DDWDDW |
| Nashville SC |
WWDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Austin and Nashville SC going into this match
Austin record
- They have won 7 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nashville SC record
- They have won 18 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Austin vs Nashville SC head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
2Austin wins
1Draws
3Nashville SC wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | Austin | Nashville SC | US Open Cup | 1-2 |
| 2025-02-15 | Austin | Nashville SC | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2024-08-25 | Nashville SC | Austin | Major League Soccer | 0-2 |
| 2022-09-18 | Austin | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2022-09-04 | Nashville SC | Austin | Major League Soccer | 3-0 |
| 2021-05-24 | Nashville SC | Austin | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Austin vs Nashville SC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.5%, draw 25.1%, away 49.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 1.91 |
| BetVictor | 3.70 | 3.60 | 1.91 |
| Betano | 3.95 | 3.85 | 1.95 |
| Betfair | 3.70 | 3.80 | 1.91 |
| Dafabet | 3.65 | 3.75 | 1.99 |
| Marathonbet | 3.66 | 3.66 | 1.89 |
| Pinnacle | 3.81 | 3.79 | 1.94 |
| SBO | 3.38 | 3.37 | 1.94 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.70 ▲ +0.20
X
3.75 ▲ +0.05
2
1.91 ▼ -0.04
36 snapshots recorded, from .