Nashville SC
vs
Sporting Kansas City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nashville SC
2 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City
| Probability | Nashville SC | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74.0% | 16.3% | 9.7% |
| Market | 73.9% | 16.0% | 10.1% |
| Final | 73.9% | 16.1% | 10.0% |
| Edge | +0.1% | +0.4% | -0.5% |
Why Nashville SC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.67 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.29, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City match preview
Nashville SC enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 74%, while Sporting Kansas City stands at 10%. The expected goals for Nashville SC are significantly higher at 2.67 compared to Sporting Kansas City's 0.91. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, which has a 10% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, Nashville SC has recorded two wins, a draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Sporting Kansas City has struggled with one win and four losses. Additionally, there is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and both teams to score is projected at 56%. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nashville SC and Sporting Kansas City expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.58
Nashville SC and Sporting Kansas City attack and defence ratings
Nashville SC
Sporting Kansas City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC — team news & stats
- Columbus Crew vs Charlotte
- CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC — match page
- FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats
- Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
- St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats
- Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
- Colorado Rapids v Minnesota United FC — match page
Before and after this match
Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nashville SC | 73.9% | 1.35 | +0.1% | 1.29 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.0% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Nashville SC win | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nashville SC | 73.9% |
| Draw | 16.1% | |
| Sporting Kansas City | 10.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.3% |
| No | 43.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nashville SC win | 53.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 26.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 3-0 | 8.8% |
Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City stats
Nashville SC and Sporting Kansas City recent form
| Nashville SC |
WWDLDW |
| Sporting Kansas City |
LWLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nashville SC and Sporting Kansas City season so far
Nashville SC record
- They have won 17 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sporting Kansas City record
- They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 73.9%, draw 16.0%, away 10.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.27 | 5.75 | 9.00 |
| Betano | 1.29 | 5.90 | 9.50 |
| Betfair | 1.22 | 6.00 | 9.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.27 | 6.20 | 9.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.27 | 5.85 | 8.60 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .