Sporting Kansas City
vs
Portland Timbers
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sporting Kansas City
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers
| Probability | Sporting Kansas City | Draw | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.8% | 22.0% | 36.2% |
| Market | 40.7% | 23.5% | 35.8% |
| Final | 40.9% | 23.1% | 35.9% |
| Edge | +1.1% | -1.5% | +0.4% |
Why Sporting Kansas City
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers match preview
Sporting Kansas City faces Portland Timbers in a Major League Soccer match with a kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. The model indicates a 40% probability of a Sporting Kansas City victory, while Portland Timbers have a 37% chance of winning, and a draw stands at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Sporting Kansas City, with an 8% probability. The match is expected to see over 2.5 goals at 77%, and both teams are likely to score, with a 76% probability.
In terms of recent form, Sporting Kansas City has recorded a sequence of results with two wins and four losses, while Portland Timbers have three losses, one draw, and one win in their last five matches. Historically, Sporting Kansas City has not won against Portland Timbers in their last three encounters, with Portland securing all three victories. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a blend of probabilities and market odds.
Sporting Kansas City and Portland Timbers team news
Sporting Kansas City news
- Capita — hamstring injury
- Diego Borges — groin injury
- J. Davis — injury
- L. Johnsen — hamstring injury
- M. Mosquera — hamstring injury
- O. Blorian — chest injury
- O. Wolff — muscle injury
Portland Timbers news
- A. Bonetig — shoulder injury
- B. Bye — leg injury
- F. Surman — knee injury
- J. Caicedo — thigh injury
- J. Mosquera — foot injury
- O. Fernandez — lower-body injury
- Z. McGraw — back injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sporting Kansas City and Portland Timbers expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.03
Sporting Kansas City and Portland Timbers attack and defence ratings
Sporting Kansas City
Portland Timbers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v Columbus Crew — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake — team news & stats
- New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
- Atlanta United FC v FC Cincinnati — match page
- New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats
- Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo
- Austin v Nashville SC — match page
- Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Kansas City | 40.9% | 2.44 | +1.1% | 2.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Kansas City | 40.9% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| Portland Timbers | 35.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.7% |
| No | 24.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Kansas City win | 24.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.7% | |
| Loss | 58.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 7.9% |
| 2-1 | 7.5% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers stats
Sporting Kansas City and Portland Timbers recent form
| Sporting Kansas City |
LWLWLL |
| Portland Timbers |
LLLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sporting Kansas City and Portland Timbers season so far
Sporting Kansas City record
- They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
Portland Timbers record
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Portland Timbers | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer | 6-0 |
| 2025-05-11 | Portland Timbers | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-13 | Sporting Kansas City | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer | 2-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.7%, draw 23.5%, away 35.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.90 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.90 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.38 | 4.10 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.30 | 3.98 | 2.57 |
| Pinnacle | 2.32 | 4.23 | 2.61 |
| SBO | 2.16 | 3.57 | 2.45 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.80 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
34 snapshots recorded, from .