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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 27

San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers

3 – 1 Full time

4′Preston Judd
24′Eduard Löwen
29′Preston Judd
30′Preston Judd
40′Reid Roberts
45′Paul MarieBenjamin Kikanovic
67′Timo WernerNick Fernandez
67′Jímer ForyIan Smith
67′Cole BassettEric Izoita
67′Ariel LassiterAntony
76′Eric Miller
76′Preston JuddLuka Jovanovic
76′Vitor CostaJamar Ricketts
79′Vincent JanssenGage Guerra
86′David Da Costa
87′Beau LerouxJack·Skahan
88′Eric MillerAlexander Aravena

Avaya Stadium, San JoseReferee: Lorenzo Hernandez

San Jose Earthquakes 44%
Draw 24%
Portland Timbers 32%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 18
8 Shots on target 6
46 Possession % 54
5 Corners 9
8 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 2
5 Saves 5
385 Accurate passes 475

San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers overview

Garuda Lions analysis: San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySan Jose EarthquakesDrawPortland Timbers
Model33.5%23.4%43.2%
Market47.9%23.9%28.2%
Final44.3%23.7%32.0%
Edge-14.4%-0.5%+14.9%

Confidence: Low

Why San Jose Earthquakes

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

San Jose Earth ↓ / Portland Timbe → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 1 10% 8% 5% 2 7% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 71%
No goals 3%

San Jose Earthquakes and Portland Timbers expected goals

San Jose Earthquakes 1.71
Portland Timbers 1.94

Total expected goals: 3.65

San Jose Earthquakes and Portland Timbers attack and defence ratings

San Jose Earthquakes

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 1.17 +17%

Portland Timbers

Attack 1.21 +21%
Defence 1.12 +12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers: result vs prediction

San Jose Earthquakes 3 – 1 Portland Timbers

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 27 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 San Jose Earthquakes 44.3% 2.26 -14.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.6% 1.42 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.9% 1.41 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.3% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 66.4% 1.51 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2San Jose Earthquakes44.3%
Draw23.7%
Portland Timbers32.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.6%
Under 2.529.4%
Both teams to scoreYes70.9%
No29.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)68.0%
12 (either side)76.3%
X2 (draw or away)55.7%
Handicap -1San Jose Earthquakes win17.3%
Push (exactly one goal)16.3%
Loss66.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.5%
1-28.4%
2-17.3%

San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers stats

San Jose Earthquakes and Portland Timbers recent form

newest first
San Jose Earthquakes DWWDDL
Portland Timbers LLDWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

San Jose Earthquakes and Portland Timbers going into this match

league record before kick-off

San Jose Earthquakes record

  • They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Portland Timbers record

  • They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5San Jose Earthquakes wins 1Draws 4Portland Timbers wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-24Portland TimbersSan Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer1-3
2026-02-11San Jose EarthquakesPortland TimbersFriendlies Clubs3-2
2025-06-14Portland TimbersSan Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer1-1
2025-05-21San Jose EarthquakesPortland TimbersUS Open Cup1-0
2025-05-04San Jose EarthquakesPortland TimbersMajor League Soccer4-1
2025-02-05Portland TimbersSan Jose EarthquakesFriendlies Clubs2-1
2024-06-20San Jose EarthquakesPortland TimbersMajor League Soccer1-2
2024-05-16Portland TimbersSan Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer4-2
2024-02-14Portland TimbersSan Jose EarthquakesFriendlies Clubs0-1
2023-09-21Portland TimbersSan Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.9%, draw 23.9%, away 28.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 1.95 4.00 3.40
BetVictor 1.95 4.00 3.25
Betano 1.98 3.80 3.50
Betfair 2.00 4.10 3.20
Marathonbet 1.94 3.82 3.36
Pinnacle 1.97 4.00 3.53
SBO 1.95 3.69 3.08
William Hill 1.95 3.50 3.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.95 —
X 3.91 ▲ +0.01
2 3.30 ▼ -0.08

18 snapshots recorded, from .