Colorado Rapids
vs
San Jose Earthquakes
Garuda Lions Prediction: Colorado Rapids
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes
| Probability | Colorado Rapids | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.4% | 25.1% | 23.4% |
| Market | 49.2% | 24.7% | 26.1% |
| Final | 49.7% | 24.8% | 25.4% |
| Edge | +2.3% | +0.4% | -2.7% |
Why Colorado Rapids
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.17.
- The market prices Colorado Rapids below the model: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes match preview
The matchup between Colorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes presents an intriguing contest, with Colorado Rapids holding a 49% probability of winning compared to 26% for San Jose Earthquakes and a 25% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Colorado, with a 10% probability. The expected goals suggest Colorado will score 1.82 while San Jose is projected at 1.17, indicating a potentially competitive match.
In terms of recent form, Colorado Rapids have recorded L-D-W-W-D-L, while San Jose Earthquakes show a stronger trend with W-D-W-W-D-D. The head-to-head record favors Colorado with 2 wins to San Jose's 1 in their last three encounters. With a confidence grade of C, the probabilities reflect a blend of model predictions and market odds.
Colorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes team news
Colorado Rapids news
- M. Diop — knee injury
- T. Ku-DiPietro — shoulder injury
- Y. Maziz — injury
- Z. Steffen — shoulder injury
San Jose Earthquakes news
- D. Jones — achilles tendon injury
- N. Adimabua — hernia
- R. Roberts — yellow cards
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Colorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
Colorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes attack and defence ratings
Colorado Rapids
San Jose Earthquakes
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v Columbus Crew — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake — team news & stats
- New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
- Atlanta United FC v FC Cincinnati — match page
- Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats
- Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo
- Austin v Nashville SC — match page
- Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Before and after this match
Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colorado Rapids | 49.7% | 2.01 | +2.3% | 1.98 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.6% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colorado Rapids | 49.7% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 25.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.0% |
| No | 41.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Colorado Rapids win | 29.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 48.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 8.3% |
Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes stats
Colorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes recent form
| Colorado Rapids |
LDWWDL |
| San Jose Earthquakes |
WDWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Colorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes season so far
Colorado Rapids record
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Jose Earthquakes record
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | Colorado Rapids | San Jose Earthquakes | US Open Cup | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-11 | Colorado Rapids | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | 0-2 |
| 2025-03-16 | San Jose Earthquakes | Colorado Rapids | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.2%, draw 24.7%, away 26.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.75 | 3.90 |
| BetVictor | 1.90 | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.98 | 3.80 | 3.65 |
| Marathonbet | 1.86 | 3.74 | 3.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.91 | 3.90 | 3.69 |
| SBO | 1.92 | 3.28 | 3.10 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
34 snapshots recorded, from .