Real Salt Lake
vs
San Jose Earthquakes
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Salt Lake
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
| Probability | Real Salt Lake | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.8% | 26.6% | 33.6% |
| Market | 53.1% | 23.2% | 23.7% |
| Final | 49.8% | 24.1% | 26.1% |
| Edge | -13.3% | +3.4% | +9.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes match preview
Real Salt Lake faces San Jose Earthquakes in a matchup where the probabilities indicate a 49% chance of a home win for Real Salt Lake, while San Jose Earthquakes have a 26% likelihood of securing victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Real Salt Lake, with an expected goals tally of 1.56 for them and 1.42 for San Jose.
In terms of recent form, Real Salt Lake has struggled, recording one win in their last six matches, while San Jose Earthquakes have shown more resilience with three wins in their last six outings. The model suggests a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance that both teams will score in this encounter. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.98
Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes attack and defence ratings
Real Salt Lake
San Jose Earthquakes
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats
- Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
- Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City — match page
- St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats
- Colorado Rapids v Minnesota United FC — match page
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats
- Los Angeles FC vs Austin
- San Diego v Houston Dynamo — match page
Before and after this match
Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Salt Lake | 49.8% | 2.01 | -13.3% | 1.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Salt Lake | 49.8% |
| Draw | 24.1% | |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 26.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% |
| No | 39.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Salt Lake win | 20.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 60.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 8.0% |
Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes stats
Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes recent form
| Real Salt Lake |
WLLLLD |
| San Jose Earthquakes |
WDWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes season so far
Real Salt Lake record
- They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
San Jose Earthquakes record
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-27 | Real Salt Lake | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2025-02-23 | San Jose Earthquakes | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.1%, draw 23.2%, away 23.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 4.05 | 4.05 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 4.20 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.77 | 4.10 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.74 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.75 | 3.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .