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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 29

Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes

1 – 1 Full time

45′Paul MarieEduard Löwen
57′Dominik MarczukChadwick Zachary Booth
59′Nick FernandezTimo Werner
59′Beau LerouxJack Jasinski
68′Jamar RickettsVitor Costa
74′Sergi SolansAriath Piol
74′Saba LobjanidzeAiden Hezarkhani
79′Luc De Fougerolles
82′Luc De FougerollesDeAndre Yedlin
83′Max FlorianiLuka Jovanovic
90′Ariath Piol
90′Jack Jasinski

Rio Tinto Stadium, SandyReferee: Sergii Demianchuk

Real Salt Lake 46%
Draw 25%
San Jose Earthquakes 29%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

22 Shots 16
8 Shots on target 2
51 Possession % 49
5 Corners 5
11 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 1
1 Saves 6
411 Accurate passes 375

Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityReal Salt LakeDrawSan Jose Earthquakes
Model37.6%27.4%35.0%
Market49.1%23.7%27.2%
Final46.2%24.6%29.1%
Edge-2.9%+0.9%+2.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Real Salt Lake ↓ / San Jose Earth → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 7% 1 7% 13% 8% 2 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 54%
No goals 7%

Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes expected goals

Real Salt Lake 1.45
San Jose Earthquakes 1.40

Total expected goals: 2.85

Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes attack and defence ratings

Real Salt Lake

Attack 0.81 -19%
Defence 1.09 +9%

San Jose Earthquakes

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes: result vs prediction

Real Salt Lake 1 – 1 San Jose Earthquakes

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Real Salt Lake 46.2% 2.16 -2.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 54.2% 1.84 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.8% 1.70 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.4% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 62.4% 1.60 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Real Salt Lake46.2%
Draw24.6%
San Jose Earthquakes29.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554.2%
Under 2.545.8%
Both teams to scoreYes58.8%
No41.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)70.9%
12 (either side)75.4%
X2 (draw or away)53.8%
Handicap -1Real Salt Lake win18.4%
Push (exactly one goal)19.2%
Loss62.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.9%
2-18.5%
1-28.2%

Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes stats

Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes recent form

newest first
Real Salt Lake LWLLLL
San Jose Earthquakes DWDWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes going into this match

league record before kick-off

Real Salt Lake record

  • They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

San Jose Earthquakes record

  • They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Real Salt Lake wins 1Draws 4San Jose Earthquakes wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-07-27Real Salt LakeSan Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer2-1
2025-02-23San Jose EarthquakesReal Salt LakeMajor League Soccer4-0
2024-10-06San Jose EarthquakesReal Salt LakeMajor League Soccer0-1
2024-08-25Real Salt LakeSan Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer0-2
2023-09-17San Jose EarthquakesReal Salt LakeMajor League Soccer2-1
2023-04-23Real Salt LakeSan Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer3-1
2022-07-31San Jose EarthquakesReal Salt LakeMajor League Soccer2-2
2022-06-19Real Salt LakeSan Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer2-0
2021-10-30Real Salt LakeSan Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer3-4
2021-09-16San Jose EarthquakesReal Salt LakeMajor League Soccer3-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 49.1%, draw 23.7%, away 27.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 1.91 4.00 3.60
BetVictor 1.91 4.00 3.40
Betano 2.00 3.95 3.35
Betfair 1.95 3.80 3.50
Dafabet 1.99 4.00 3.45
Marathonbet 1.86 3.88 3.58
Pinnacle 1.94 4.03 3.60
SBO 1.91 3.64 3.23
William Hill 1.85 3.60 3.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.91 ▲ +0.13
X 3.95 ▼ -0.03
2 3.45 ▼ -0.45

20 snapshots recorded, from .