San Jose Earthquakes
vs
Nashville SC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nashville SC
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC
| Probability | San Jose Earthquakes | Draw | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.3% | 23.1% | 59.6% |
| Market | 27.0% | 24.7% | 48.2% |
| Final | 24.6% | 24.3% | 51.1% |
| Edge | -9.7% | -1.7% | +11.4% |
Why Nashville SC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Nashville SC below the model: +11.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.01, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC match preview
In the upcoming match between San Jose Earthquakes and Nashville SC, the probabilities indicate a stronger likelihood for Nashville SC, with a 55% chance of winning compared to San Jose's 21%. The most likely scoreline, according to our model, is 1-2, which has a 10% probability. Both teams are expected to contribute to the score, with a 58% chance of both teams finding the net and a similar probability for over 2.5 goals.
Recent form shows San Jose Earthquakes with mixed results, recording two draws, three wins, and one loss in their last six matches. In contrast, Nashville SC has been more consistent, with three wins, two draws, and one loss in their recent outings. Expected goals suggest San Jose will score 1.11 while Nashville is projected at 1.91, further highlighting the offensive edge for the visitors.
San Jose Earthquakes and Nashville SC team news
San Jose Earthquakes news
- B. Kikanovic — lower-body injury
- D. Johnson — lower-body injury
- D. Jones — achilles tendon injury
- J. A. Gonzalez Mendoza — injury
- J. Skahan — lower-body injury
- N. Adimabua — hernia
- N. Tsakiris — upper-body injury
Nashville SC news
- F. Camara — lower-body injury
- O. Presthus — lower-body injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
San Jose Earthquakes and Nashville SC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.02
San Jose Earthquakes and Nashville SC attack and defence ratings
San Jose Earthquakes
Nashville SC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v DC United — match page
- New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC — team news & stats
- Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas — team news & stats
- Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake
- Austin v Vancouver Whitecaps — match page
- Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal — team news & stats
- Los Angeles Galaxy v San Diego — match page
- Portland Timbers vs Colorado Rapids — team news & stats
Before and after this match
San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nashville SC | 51.1% | 1.96 | +11.4% | 2.01 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.4% | 2.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Jose Earthquakes | 24.6% |
| Draw | 24.3% | |
| Nashville SC | 51.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.0% |
| No | 44.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 48.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nashville SC win | 36.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 40.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 1-2 | 10.0% | |
| 0-2 | 9.9% |
San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC stats
San Jose Earthquakes and Nashville SC recent form
| San Jose Earthquakes |
DDWDWW |
| Nashville SC |
WWWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
San Jose Earthquakes and Nashville SC season so far
San Jose Earthquakes record
- They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nashville SC record
- They have won 20 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-28 | Nashville SC | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2023-09-24 | San Jose Earthquakes | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2022-06-12 | Nashville SC | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
| 2022-04-16 | San Jose Earthquakes | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.0%, draw 24.7%, away 48.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.90 | 1.91 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.80 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.70 | 3.80 | 1.95 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.90 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.60 | 3.95 | 1.97 |
| Marathonbet | 3.48 | 3.78 | 1.91 |
| Pinnacle | 3.49 | 3.90 | 2.01 |
| SBO | 3.02 | 3.30 | 1.94 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .