CF Montreal
vs
Nashville SC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nashville SC
0 – 2 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 0.75.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
CF Montreal vs Nashville SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CF Montreal vs Nashville SC
| Probability | CF Montreal | Draw | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10.0% | 19.1% | 70.9% |
| Market | 19.3% | 22.4% | 58.3% |
| Final | 16.9% | 21.6% | 61.5% |
| Edge | -2.3% | -0.8% | +3.2% |
Why Nashville SC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Nashville SC below our published probability: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.4% per unit staked (our 61.5% × 1.65 − 1).
CF Montreal vs Nashville SC match preview
CF Montreal faces Nashville SC in a Major League Soccer matchup with kickoff scheduled for October 24, 2026. According to our model, CF Montreal has a 10% probability of winning, while Nashville SC is favored at 71%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a 13% likelihood. Expected goals suggest CF Montreal will score 0.75, compared to Nashville SC's 2.27.
In terms of recent form, CF Montreal has struggled with a record of D-L-L-W-L-L, while Nashville SC has shown strong performance, going D-W-W-W-W-D. The head-to-head record indicates that CF Montreal has not won against Nashville SC in their last three encounters, recording 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. The model also suggests a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% probability of both teams scoring.
CF Montreal and Nashville SC team news
CF Montreal news
- B. Ceballos — lower-body injury
- B. Hidalgo — groin injury
- D. Sealy — lower-body injury
- T. Gillier — upper-body injury
Nashville SC news
- F. Camara — lower-body injury
- O. Presthus — lower-body injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
CF Montreal and Nashville SC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.02
CF Montreal and Nashville SC attack and defence ratings
CF Montreal
Nashville SC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC — team news & stats
- New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami
- Orlando City SC v New York City FC — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution — team news & stats
- Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire
- DC United v FC Cincinnati — match page
- FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes — team news & stats
- Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC
Before and after this match
CF Montreal vs Nashville SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nashville SC | 61.5% | 1.63 | +3.2% | 1.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Nashville SC win | 48.2% | 2.08 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CF Montreal | 16.9% |
| Draw | 21.6% | |
| Nashville SC | 61.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.2% |
| No | 51.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 38.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nashville SC win | 48.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 29.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 12.5% |
| 0-1 | 10.2% | |
| 0-3 | 9.5% |
CF Montreal vs Nashville SC stats
CF Montreal and Nashville SC recent form
| CF Montreal |
DLLWLL |
| Nashville SC |
DWWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
CF Montreal and Nashville SC season so far
CF Montreal record
- They have won 6 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nashville SC record
- They have won 20 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CF Montreal vs Nashville SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Nashville SC | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-04 | CF Montreal | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-23 | Nashville SC | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer | 3-0 |
| 2024-05-25 | CF Montreal | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
| 2024-05-05 | Nashville SC | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer | 4-1 |
| 2023-06-21 | CF Montreal | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2023-03-12 | Nashville SC | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
| 2022-05-19 | Nashville SC | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2021-09-12 | CF Montreal | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer | 0-1 |
| 2021-06-27 | Nashville SC | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
CF Montreal vs Nashville SC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.3%, draw 22.4%, away 58.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 5.50 | 4.00 | 1.62 |
| BetVictor | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.57 |
| Betano | 4.85 | 4.15 | 1.65 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.60 |
| Dafabet | 4.90 | 4.30 | 1.65 |
| Marathonbet | 4.80 | 4.20 | 1.59 |
| Pinnacle | 4.88 | 4.33 | 1.61 |
| SBO | 4.22 | 3.70 | 1.57 |
| William Hill | 4.60 | 3.90 | 1.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .