Columbus Crew
vs
Toronto FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Columbus Crew
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.18.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Columbus Crew is the favourite, not a value bet.
Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC
| Probability | Columbus Crew | Draw | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.1% | 24.4% | 22.5% |
| Market | 60.1% | 21.0% | 18.8% |
| Final | 58.4% | 21.9% | 19.8% |
| Edge | -1.8% | +0.8% | +0.9% |
Why Columbus Crew
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.4% per unit staked (our 58.4% × 1.62 − 1).
Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC match preview
Columbus Crew enters this matchup with a 52% probability of winning, while Toronto FC stands at 25%. The expected goals for Columbus Crew are 2.06, compared to 1.42 for Toronto FC, suggesting a competitive encounter. Recent form shows Columbus Crew with three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while Toronto FC has one win, two draws, and three losses.
In their last three head-to-head meetings, Columbus Crew has not secured a victory, recording two draws and one loss against Toronto FC. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Columbus Crew, with a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance for both teams to score. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Columbus Crew and Toronto FC team news
Columbus Crew news
- R. Camacho — chest injury
- T. Habroune — injury
- W. Abou Ali — knee injury
Toronto FC news
- K. Franklin — shoulder injury
- N. Palacio — lower-body injury
- W. Zimmerman — ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Columbus Crew and Toronto FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.09
Columbus Crew and Toronto FC attack and defence ratings
Columbus Crew
Toronto FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- CF Montreal v Nashville SC — match page
- New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami
- Orlando City SC v New York City FC — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution — team news & stats
- Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire
- DC United v FC Cincinnati — match page
- FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes — team news & stats
- Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC
Before and after this match
Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Columbus Crew | 58.4% | 1.71 | -1.8% | 1.62 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.2% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Columbus Crew | 58.4% |
| Draw | 21.9% | |
| Toronto FC | 19.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.1% |
| No | 39.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Columbus Crew win | 31.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 46.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.3% |
Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC stats
Columbus Crew and Toronto FC recent form
| Columbus Crew |
DWWLWW |
| Toronto FC |
WDWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Columbus Crew and Toronto FC season so far
Columbus Crew record
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Toronto FC record
- They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Toronto FC | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Columbus Crew | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-16 | Toronto FC | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.1%, draw 21.1%, away 18.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.55 | 4.50 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.40 | 4.90 |
| Betfair | 1.55 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.60 | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.56 | 4.45 | 4.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.57 | 4.57 | 4.99 |
| SBO | 1.50 | 3.96 | 4.45 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .