Philadelphia Union
vs
New England Revolution
Garuda Lions Prediction: Philadelphia Union
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.83 vs 1.29.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Philadelphia Union is the favourite, not a value bet.
Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution
| Probability | Philadelphia Union | Draw | New England Revolution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.8% | 16.9% | 14.3% |
| Market | 62.0% | 20.2% | 17.8% |
| Final | 63.7% | 19.4% | 16.9% |
| Edge | +1.7% | -0.8% | -0.9% |
Why Philadelphia Union
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.83 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.56, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.6% per unit staked (our 63.7% × 1.56 − 1).
Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution match preview
The upcoming match between Philadelphia Union and New England Revolution presents a favorable outlook for the home side, with our model assigning a 69% probability of a Philadelphia victory. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, occurring at an 8% likelihood. The expected goals indicate a strong offensive performance from Philadelphia Union at 2.83 compared to New England Revolution's 1.29, suggesting a significant advantage for the hosts.
In terms of recent form, Philadelphia Union is on a solid run with five consecutive wins and a draw, while New England Revolution has shown mixed results, winning three of their last six matches. The head-to-head record over the last three encounters favors Philadelphia Union, who have secured two wins against New England Revolution's one. Overall, the statistics indicate a strong position for Philadelphia Union heading into this matchup.
Philadelphia Union and New England Revolution team news
Philadelphia Union news
- J. Bueno — hamstring injury
New England Revolution news
- A. Yusuf — muscle injury
- J. Harrison — lower-body injury
- L. Campana — hamstring injury
- M. Fofana — lower-body injury
- W. Sands — injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Philadelphia Union and New England Revolution expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.12
Philadelphia Union and New England Revolution attack and defence ratings
Philadelphia Union
New England Revolution
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami
- Orlando City SC v New York City FC — match page
- Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire
- DC United v FC Cincinnati — match page
- FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes — team news & stats
- Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC
- Sporting Kansas City vs Austin
- Real Salt Lake v St. Louis City — match page
Before and after this match
Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Philadelphia Union | 63.7% | 1.57 | +1.7% | 1.56 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Philadelphia Union win | 49.4% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Philadelphia Union | 63.7% |
| Draw | 19.4% | |
| New England Revolution | 16.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 22.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.8% |
| No | 31.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Philadelphia Union win | 49.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 31.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.4% |
| 3-1 | 7.9% | |
| 1-1 | 6.5% |
Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution stats
Philadelphia Union and New England Revolution recent form
| Philadelphia Union |
DWWWWW |
| New England Revolution |
WWLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Philadelphia Union and New England Revolution season so far
Philadelphia Union record
- They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New England Revolution record
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | New England Revolution | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Philadelphia Union | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-09 | New England Revolution | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.0%, draw 20.2%, away 17.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.75 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 4.60 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 4.75 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.56 | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.51 | 4.60 | 5.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.52 | 4.70 | 5.34 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .