New England Revolution
vs
Chicago Fire
Garuda Lions Prediction: New England Revolution
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire overview
Garuda Lions analysis: New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire
| Probability | New England Revolution | Draw | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.5% | 23.3% | 29.2% |
| Market | 40.3% | 24.8% | 34.9% |
| Final | 42.1% | 24.4% | 33.5% |
| Edge | +7.2% | -1.5% | -5.7% |
Why New England Revolution
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.56.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices New England Revolution below the model: +7.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.44, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire match preview
The upcoming match between New England Revolution and Chicago Fire presents a closely contested encounter, with probabilities indicating a slight edge for New England Revolution at 38%, while Chicago Fire stands at 37%, and a draw is forecasted at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of New England Revolution, with an 8% probability. Both teams are expected to contribute to a high-scoring affair, as shown by the 62% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, New England Revolution has recorded two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Chicago Fire has three wins, two losses, and one draw in the same period. The head-to-head record over the last ten matches shows an even split, with each team securing two wins and six draws. The expected goals for this match are closely matched, with New England Revolution at 1.62 and Chicago Fire at 1.60, indicating a competitive matchup.
New England Revolution and Chicago Fire team news
New England Revolution news
- A. Yusuf — muscle injury
- J. Harrison — lower-body injury
- L. Campana — hamstring injury
- M. Fofana — lower-body injury
Chicago Fire news
- A. Franco — knee injury
- A. Mekvabishvili — lower-body injury
- J. Elliott — suspended
- R. Lod — lower-body injury
- S. Rogers — lower-body injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
New England Revolution and Chicago Fire expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.57
New England Revolution and Chicago Fire attack and defence ratings
New England Revolution
Chicago Fire
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City
- Orlando City SC v DC United — match page
- New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC — team news & stats
- Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami
- New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC
- Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas — team news & stats
- Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake
- Austin v Vancouver Whitecaps — match page
Before and after this match
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New England Revolution | 42.1% | 2.38 | +7.2% | 2.44 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.2% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.5% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New England Revolution | 42.1% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| Chicago Fire | 33.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.3% |
| No | 30.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | New England Revolution win | 27.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 52.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.7% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire stats
New England Revolution and Chicago Fire recent form
| New England Revolution |
WLLWWW |
| Chicago Fire |
LWWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
New England Revolution and Chicago Fire season so far
New England Revolution record
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
Chicago Fire record
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Chicago Fire | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-18 | New England Revolution | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2025-09-07 | Chicago Fire | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer | 3-2 |
| 2025-05-20 | New England Revolution | Chicago Fire | US Open Cup | 1-3 |
| 2024-05-05 | Chicago Fire | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer | 0-1 |
| 2024-03-23 | New England Revolution | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2023-09-24 | Chicago Fire | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2023-05-27 | New England Revolution | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 3-3 |
| 2022-10-09 | Chicago Fire | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2022-08-31 | New England Revolution | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.0%, draw 24.7%, away 35.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 3.80 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.90 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.42 | 3.70 | 2.70 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 4.00 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.44 | 3.90 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.34 | 3.74 | 2.63 |
| Pinnacle | 2.39 | 3.86 | 2.81 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .