New York City FC
vs
Los Angeles FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Los Angeles FC
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC
| Probability | New York City FC | Draw | Los Angeles FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.5% | 32.6% | 35.9% |
| Market | 35.5% | 26.7% | 37.8% |
| Final | 34.5% | 28.2% | 37.3% |
| Edge | -4.0% | +5.9% | -1.9% |
Why Los Angeles FC
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.59, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC match preview
New York City FC faces Los Angeles FC in a matchup where the probabilities indicate a close contest, with Los Angeles FC slightly favored at 37% compared to New York City FC's 35%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring with an 11% probability. Expected goals suggest New York City FC may score 1.13 while Los Angeles FC is projected at 0.95, indicating a tight battle.
Recent form shows New York City FC with a record of L-D-L-W-L-D, while Los Angeles FC has D-L-D-L-W-D. In their last encounter, Los Angeles FC emerged victorious, adding to their historical advantage with 1 win in their only head-to-head match. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the outcome.
New York City FC and Los Angeles FC team news
New York City FC news
- A. Farnos — injury
- D. Baiera — knee injury
- K. Parks — injury
- K. Trewin — ankle injury
- M. Moralez — knee injury
Los Angeles FC news
- C. Carter — arm injury
- J. Ebobisse — leg injury
- T. Tillman — injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
New York City FC and Los Angeles FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.10
New York City FC and Los Angeles FC attack and defence ratings
New York City FC
Los Angeles FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City
- Orlando City SC v DC United — match page
- New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC — team news & stats
- Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami
- New England Revolution v Chicago Fire — match page
- Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas — team news & stats
- Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake
- Austin v Vancouver Whitecaps — match page
Before and after this match
New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Los Angeles FC | 37.3% | 2.68 | -1.9% | 2.59 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New York City FC | 34.5% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Los Angeles FC | 37.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.6% |
| No | 56.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Los Angeles FC win | 15.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 64.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.6% | |
| 0-1 | 12.0% |
New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC stats
New York City FC and Los Angeles FC recent form
| New York City FC |
LLDLWL |
| Los Angeles FC |
WDLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
New York City FC and Los Angeles FC season so far
New York City FC record
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Los Angeles FC record
- They have won 12 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Los Angeles FC | New York City FC | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-02 | Los Angeles FC | New York City FC | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2023-01-28 | Los Angeles FC | New York City FC | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2023-01-28 | New York City FC | Los Angeles FC | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2021-05-29 | Los Angeles FC | New York City FC | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2019-03-17 | New York City FC | Los Angeles FC | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2018-05-14 | Los Angeles FC | New York City FC | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.0%, draw 26.9%, away 38.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.87 | 3.45 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| Marathonbet | 2.63 | 3.44 | 2.47 |
| Pinnacle | 2.75 | 3.53 | 2.59 |
| SBO | 2.59 | 3.14 | 2.24 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .