Los Angeles FC
vs
Los Angeles Galaxy
Garuda Lions Prediction: Los Angeles FC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.15.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Los Angeles FC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy
| Probability | Los Angeles FC | Draw | Los Angeles Galaxy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.7% | 26.0% | 24.3% |
| Market | 61.5% | 20.3% | 18.1% |
| Final | 58.6% | 21.8% | 19.7% |
| Edge | -3.0% | +1.4% | +1.6% |
Why Los Angeles FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.15.
Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.0% per unit staked (our 58.6% × 1.57 − 1).
Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy match preview
Los Angeles FC faces Los Angeles Galaxy in a Major League Soccer match on October 26, 2026. According to our model, Los Angeles FC has a 50% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 26% and Los Angeles Galaxy at 24%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Los Angeles FC, with a 10% likelihood. The expected goals are 1.72 for Los Angeles FC and 1.15 for Los Angeles Galaxy, indicating a stronger offensive performance from the home side.
In terms of recent form, Los Angeles FC has recorded draws and losses, with their latest results being D-W-D-L-D-L. Conversely, Los Angeles Galaxy has shown a more positive trend with D-W-L-W-W-D. The head-to-head record over the last three encounters favors Los Angeles FC, who have secured 1 win and 2 draws, while Los Angeles Galaxy has not won any of the last three meetings.
Los Angeles FC and Los Angeles Galaxy team news
Los Angeles FC news
- C. Carter — arm injury
- J. Ebobisse — leg injury
- T. Tillman — pelvis injury
Los Angeles Galaxy news
- H. Lozano — hamstring injury
- I. Parente — ankle injury
- K. Furuhashi — hamstring injury
- R. Puig — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Los Angeles FC and Los Angeles Galaxy expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.88
Los Angeles FC and Los Angeles Galaxy attack and defence ratings
Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New York City FC — match page
- FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes — team news & stats
- Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC
- Sporting Kansas City vs Austin
- Real Salt Lake v St. Louis City — match page
- Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats
- Portland Timbers v Charlotte — match page
- San Diego vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Los Angeles FC | 58.6% | 1.71 | -3.0% | 1.57 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Los Angeles FC | 58.6% |
| Draw | 21.8% | |
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 19.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% |
| No | 42.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Los Angeles FC win | 27.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 50.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-0 | 8.6% |
Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy stats
Los Angeles FC and Los Angeles Galaxy recent form
| Los Angeles FC |
DWDLDL |
| Los Angeles Galaxy |
DWLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Los Angeles FC and Los Angeles Galaxy season so far
Los Angeles FC record
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Los Angeles Galaxy record
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Los Angeles Galaxy | Los Angeles FC | Major League Soccer | 0-3 |
| 2025-07-20 | Los Angeles FC | Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer | 3-3 |
| 2025-05-19 | Los Angeles Galaxy | Los Angeles FC | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2024-09-15 | Los Angeles Galaxy | Los Angeles FC | Major League Soccer | 4-2 |
| 2024-07-05 | Los Angeles Galaxy | Los Angeles FC | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2024-04-06 | Los Angeles FC | Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2023-09-17 | Los Angeles FC | Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer | 4-2 |
| 2023-07-05 | Los Angeles Galaxy | Los Angeles FC | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2023-05-24 | Los Angeles FC | Los Angeles Galaxy | US Open Cup | 0-2 |
| 2023-04-16 | Los Angeles Galaxy | Los Angeles FC | Major League Soccer | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.6%, draw 20.5%, away 17.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 4.75 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.60 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 4.85 | 5.40 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.56 | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.51 | 4.60 | 5.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.56 | 4.75 | 5.24 |
| SBO | 1.46 | 4.07 | 4.64 |
| William Hill | 1.53 | 4.20 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .