Los Angeles Galaxy
vs
San Diego
Garuda Lions Prediction: Los Angeles Galaxy
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego
| Probability | Los Angeles Galaxy | Draw | San Diego |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.6% | 20.3% | 28.1% |
| Market | 42.6% | 23.8% | 33.6% |
| Final | 44.9% | 22.9% | 32.2% |
| Edge | +9.0% | -3.5% | -5.5% |
Why Los Angeles Galaxy
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.47 vs 1.84.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Los Angeles Galaxy below the model: +9.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego match preview
Los Angeles Galaxy faces San Diego in a Major League Soccer match with a kickoff scheduled for 2026-10-18. According to our model, Los Angeles Galaxy has a 54% probability of winning, while San Diego stands at 24%, and a draw is estimated at 22%. The expected goals for Los Angeles Galaxy is 2.20, compared to San Diego's 1.46, indicating a likely competitive match. The most probable scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 9% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, Los Angeles Galaxy has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. In contrast, San Diego has struggled, with one draw and four losses in their recent games. The model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 69%, highlighting the potential for an engaging encounter.
Los Angeles Galaxy and San Diego team news
Los Angeles Galaxy news
- H. Lozano — hamstring injury
- K. Furuhashi — hamstring injury
- R. Puig — knee injury
San Diego news
- O. Soe — lower-body injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Los Angeles Galaxy and San Diego expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.31
Los Angeles Galaxy and San Diego attack and defence ratings
Los Angeles Galaxy
San Diego
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v DC United — match page
- New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC — team news & stats
- Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas — team news & stats
- Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake
- Austin v Vancouver Whitecaps — match page
- Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal — team news & stats
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC
- Portland Timbers vs Colorado Rapids — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 44.9% | 2.23 | +9.0% | 2.31 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.4% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.6% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.4% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 44.9% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| San Diego | 32.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.6% |
| No | 22.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Los Angeles Galaxy win | 32.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 48.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.5% |
| 2-2 | 6.9% | |
| 1-1 | 6.7% |
Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego stats
Los Angeles Galaxy and San Diego recent form
| Los Angeles Galaxy |
WLWWDL |
| San Diego |
DLDDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Los Angeles Galaxy and San Diego season so far
Los Angeles Galaxy record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Diego record
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | San Diego | Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer | 3-1 |
| 2025-05-24 | San Diego | Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2025-02-24 | Los Angeles Galaxy | San Diego | Major League Soccer | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.9%, draw 23.9%, away 33.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.80 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 4.00 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 3.85 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 4.00 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.20 | 3.95 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.13 | 3.94 | 2.84 |
| Pinnacle | 2.31 | 4.04 | 2.79 |
| SBO | 2.11 | 3.39 | 2.61 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.70 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .