San Diego
vs
Seattle Sounders
Garuda Lions Prediction: San Diego
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — San Diego is the favourite, not a value bet.
San Diego vs Seattle Sounders overview
Garuda Lions analysis: San Diego vs Seattle Sounders
| Probability | San Diego | Draw | Seattle Sounders |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.9% | 23.7% | 48.4% |
| Market | 43.2% | 24.1% | 32.7% |
| Final | 39.4% | 24.0% | 36.6% |
| Edge | -3.8% | -0.1% | +3.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.5% per unit staked (our 39.4% × 2.25 − 1).
San Diego vs Seattle Sounders match preview
San Diego faces Seattle Sounders in a tightly contested matchup, with probabilities indicating a 39% chance of a San Diego victory, a 24% likelihood of a draw, and a 37% chance for Seattle Sounders. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of San Diego, with an expected goals tally of 1.46 for San Diego and 1.96 for Seattle Sounders.
Recent form shows San Diego struggling with three draws and two losses in their last five matches, while Seattle Sounders have been in better shape, recording four wins and a draw in their last five outings. With both teams showing a high probability of scoring—67% for both teams to score and 66% for over 2.5 goals—the match promises to be an engaging encounter.
San Diego and Seattle Sounders team news
San Diego news
- O. Soe — lower-body injury
Seattle Sounders news
- A. Roldan — calf injury
- N. Petkovic — knee injury
- P. Rothrock — hamstring injury
- P. de La Vega — calf injury
- S. Hawkins — hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
San Diego and Seattle Sounders expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.42
San Diego and Seattle Sounders attack and defence ratings
San Diego
Seattle Sounders
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New York City FC — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution — team news & stats
- FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes — team news & stats
- Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC
- Sporting Kansas City vs Austin
- Real Salt Lake v St. Louis City — match page
- Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats
- Portland Timbers v Charlotte — match page
Before and after this match
San Diego vs Seattle Sounders markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Diego | 39.4% | 2.54 | -3.8% | 2.25 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Diego | 39.4% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Seattle Sounders | 36.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.0% |
| No | 33.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | San Diego win | 13.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.8% | |
| Loss | 72.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 2-1 | 6.8% |
San Diego vs Seattle Sounders stats
San Diego and Seattle Sounders recent form
| San Diego |
DDLDDL |
| Seattle Sounders |
DLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
San Diego and Seattle Sounders season so far
San Diego record
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 10 penalties (90%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Seattle Sounders record
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
San Diego vs Seattle Sounders head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Seattle Sounders | San Diego | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-29 | Seattle Sounders | San Diego | Major League Soccer | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-06 | San Diego | Seattle Sounders | Major League Soccer | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
San Diego vs Seattle Sounders odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.4%, draw 24.0%, away 32.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.90 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.90 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.90 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 4.00 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.24 | 4.00 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.16 | 3.86 | 2.83 |
| Pinnacle | 2.21 | 3.97 | 2.98 |
| SBO | 2.16 | 3.31 | 2.58 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .