FC Dallas
vs
San Jose Earthquakes
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Dallas
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.22.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — FC Dallas is the favourite, not a value bet.
FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes
| Probability | FC Dallas | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.3% | 25.2% | 24.5% |
| Market | 54.3% | 22.5% | 23.2% |
| Final | 53.3% | 23.2% | 23.5% |
| Edge | -1.0% | +0.7% | +0.3% |
Why FC Dallas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.22.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.5% per unit staked (our 53.3% × 1.83 − 1).
FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes match preview
FC Dallas faces San Jose Earthquakes in this upcoming MLS match with a probability of winning set at 50% for Dallas, while both teams share a 25% chance of a draw or a San Jose victory. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of FC Dallas, with an expected goals tally of 1.81 for Dallas and 1.22 for San Jose.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with FC Dallas recording two wins and three draws in their last six matches, while San Jose Earthquakes have managed two wins and four draws. The model indicates a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% likelihood that both teams will score during the match. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C.
FC Dallas and San Jose Earthquakes team news
FC Dallas news
- A. A. Julio Santos — lower-body injury
- Geovane Jesus — knee injury
- Kaick — personal reasons
- L. Farrington — lower-body injury
- S. Sarver — suspended
San Jose Earthquakes news
- B. Kikanovic — lower-body injury
- D. Johnson — lower-body injury
- D. Jones — achilles tendon injury
- J. A. Gonzalez Mendoza — injury
- J. Skahan — lower-body injury
- N. Adimabua — hernia
- N. Tsakiris — upper-body injury
- P. Judd — yellow cards
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Dallas and San Jose Earthquakes expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.03
FC Dallas and San Jose Earthquakes attack and defence ratings
FC Dallas
San Jose Earthquakes
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New York City FC — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution — team news & stats
- Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire
- DC United v FC Cincinnati — match page
- Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC
- Sporting Kansas City vs Austin
- Real Salt Lake v St. Louis City — match page
- Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats
Before and after this match
FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Dallas | 53.3% | 1.88 | -1.0% | 1.83 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.3% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Dallas | 53.3% |
| Draw | 23.2% | |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 23.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% |
| No | 40.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Dallas win | 28.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 49.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 7.9% |
FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes stats
FC Dallas and San Jose Earthquakes recent form
| FC Dallas |
DWLWDW |
| San Jose Earthquakes |
DDDWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Dallas and San Jose Earthquakes season so far
FC Dallas record
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Jose Earthquakes record
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | San Jose Earthquakes | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer | 2-3 |
| 2025-07-17 | San Jose Earthquakes | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2025-06-26 | FC Dallas | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | 2-4 |
| 2024-10-03 | San Jose Earthquakes | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer | 3-2 |
| 2024-02-25 | FC Dallas | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2023-10-08 | FC Dallas | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2023-05-28 | San Jose Earthquakes | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2022-09-18 | San Jose Earthquakes | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2022-08-14 | FC Dallas | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer | 4-1 |
| 2021-11-07 | San Jose Earthquakes | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.4%, draw 22.4%, away 23.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 4.20 | 4.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 4.10 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.83 | 4.25 | 4.05 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| Dafabet | 1.81 | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.70 | 4.15 | 4.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.78 | 4.24 | 4.10 |
| SBO | 1.62 | 3.76 | 3.77 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .