Orlando City SC
vs
New York City FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Orlando City SC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.24.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Orlando City SC vs New York City FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Orlando City SC vs New York City FC
| Probability | Orlando City SC | Draw | New York City FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.6% | 21.3% | 19.1% |
| Market | 41.5% | 24.2% | 34.3% |
| Final | 46.0% | 23.5% | 30.5% |
| Edge | +4.5% | -0.7% | -3.8% |
Why Orlando City SC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.24.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Orlando City SC below our published probability: +4.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +5.8% per unit staked (our 46.0% × 2.30 − 1).
Orlando City SC vs New York City FC match preview
Orlando City SC will face New York City FC in a Major League Soccer matchup with kickoff scheduled for October 24, 2026. According to our model, Orlando City SC has a 60% probability of winning, while New York City FC stands at 19%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Orlando, with an expected goals tally of 2.26 for Orlando and 1.23 for New York.
In terms of recent form, Orlando City SC has recorded a W-D-W-L-L-L streak, while New York City FC shows a D-L-L-D-L-W record. Historically, New York City FC has dominated their last three encounters, winning all three matches against Orlando City SC. Additionally, there is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are expected to score with a probability of 64%.
Orlando City SC and New York City FC team news
Orlando City SC news
- B. Rhein — injury
- G. Dorsey — back injury
- Luis Otavio — yellow cards
- R. Jansson — foot injury
- T. Spicer — foot injury
- Vinicius Nogueira — shoulder injury
New York City FC news
- A. Farnos — leg injury
- D. Baiera — knee injury
- K. Parks — leg injury
- K. Trewin — ankle injury
- M. Moralez — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Orlando City SC and New York City FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.50
Orlando City SC and New York City FC attack and defence ratings
Orlando City SC
New York City FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami
- Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution — team news & stats
- Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire
- DC United v FC Cincinnati — match page
- FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes — team news & stats
- Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC
- Sporting Kansas City vs Austin
- Real Salt Lake v St. Louis City — match page
Before and after this match
Orlando City SC vs New York City FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orlando City SC | 46.0% | 2.17 | +4.5% | 2.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.4% | 2.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orlando City SC | 46.0% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| New York City FC | 30.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.4% |
| No | 35.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Orlando City SC win | 38.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 40.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.6% |
| 1-1 | 9.3% | |
| 2-0 | 7.7% |
Orlando City SC vs New York City FC stats
Orlando City SC and New York City FC recent form
| Orlando City SC |
WDWLLL |
| New York City FC |
DLLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Orlando City SC and New York City FC season so far
Orlando City SC record
- They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New York City FC record
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Orlando City SC vs New York City FC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | New York City FC | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer | 5-0 |
| 2025-07-17 | Orlando City SC | New York City FC | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2025-03-09 | New York City FC | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Orlando City SC vs New York City FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.4%, draw 24.2%, away 34.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.90 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.85 | 2.82 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.90 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.28 | 3.95 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.30 | 3.84 | 2.63 |
| Pinnacle | 2.28 | 3.97 | 2.78 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 3.48 | 2.61 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .