New York City FC
vs
Atlanta United FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: New York City FC
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC
| Probability | New York City FC | Draw | Atlanta United FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.0% | 28.9% | 33.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 38.0% | 28.9% | 33.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC match preview
New York City FC faces Atlanta United FC in a closely contested matchup, with our model giving New York City FC a 38% chance of winning, while Atlanta United FC has a 33% probability. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of New York City FC, which has a 9% likelihood. Both teams have shown mixed form recently, with New York City FC recording a D-L-L-D-L-W streak and Atlanta United FC having L-W-L-D-W-D results.
In terms of expected goals, New York City FC is projected to score 1.35 goals, while Atlanta United FC is slightly behind at 1.25. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 48%, and there is a 54% chance that both teams will score. Historically, in their last 10 encounters, New York City FC has 3 wins, 6 draws, and Atlanta United FC has 1 win.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
New York City FC and Atlanta United FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.60
New York City FC and Atlanta United FC attack and defence ratings
New York City FC
Atlanta United FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- Toronto FC v DC United — match page
- New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls
- Inter Miami v FC Cincinnati — match page
- Charlotte vs CF Montreal — team news & stats
- FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew
- Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC — match page
- Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City — team news & stats
- Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union
Before and after this match
New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New York City FC | 38.0% | 2.64 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New York City FC | 38.0% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Atlanta United FC | 33.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.0% |
| No | 46.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | New York City FC win | 18.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 62.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 8.8% | |
| 0-0 | 8.7% |
New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC stats
New York City FC and Atlanta United FC recent form
| New York City FC |
DLLDLW |
| Atlanta United FC |
LWLDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
New York City FC and Atlanta United FC season so far
New York City FC record
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlanta United FC record
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Atlanta United FC | New York City FC | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2025-06-12 | New York City FC | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 4-0 |
| 2025-03-29 | Atlanta United FC | New York City FC | Major League Soccer | 4-3 |
| 2024-07-17 | Atlanta United FC | New York City FC | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2024-04-06 | New York City FC | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2023-06-21 | Atlanta United FC | New York City FC | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2023-04-08 | New York City FC | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2022-10-09 | Atlanta United FC | New York City FC | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2022-07-03 | New York City FC | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2021-11-21 | New York City FC | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.