Atlanta United FC
vs
Toronto FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atlanta United FC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.75.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC
| Probability | Atlanta United FC | Draw | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.6% | 21.9% | 30.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 47.6% | 21.9% | 30.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Atlanta United FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.75.
Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC match preview
Atlanta United FC hosts Toronto FC in an intriguing matchup with Atlanta holding a 48% probability of winning compared to Toronto's 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with a strong expectation for over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams to score at 74%. Atlanta's expected goals stand at 2.19, while Toronto's is 1.75.
In terms of recent form, Atlanta has recorded two wins, a draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Toronto has experienced a mixed bag with two wins, two draws, and a loss. Historically, in their last three encounters, Atlanta has secured one win and two draws against Toronto, who have yet to claim victory in this matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atlanta United FC and Toronto FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.94
Atlanta United FC and Toronto FC attack and defence ratings
Atlanta United FC
Toronto FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake
- Los Angeles Galaxy v Austin — match page
- Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire — team news & stats
- Vancouver Whitecaps vs Seattle Sounders
- Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls
- New England Revolution v Inter Miami — match page
- Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United FC — team news & stats
- Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlanta United FC | 47.6% | 2.10 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlanta United FC | 47.6% |
| Draw | 21.9% | |
| Toronto FC | 30.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.1% |
| No | 25.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atlanta United FC win | 28.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 52.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.2% | |
| 2-2 | 7.1% |
Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC stats
Atlanta United FC and Toronto FC recent form
| Atlanta United FC |
LLWLDW |
| Toronto FC |
LWDWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atlanta United FC and Toronto FC season so far
Atlanta United FC record
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Toronto FC record
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Toronto FC | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-24 | Atlanta United FC | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Toronto FC | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.