Philadelphia Union
vs
Toronto FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Philadelphia Union
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.78 vs 1.22.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Philadelphia Union is the favourite, not a value bet.
Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC
| Probability | Philadelphia Union | Draw | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.4% | 17.0% | 13.6% |
| Market | 65.4% | 18.8% | 15.7% |
| Final | 66.4% | 18.4% | 15.2% |
| Edge | +1.0% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
Why Philadelphia Union
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.78 vs 1.22.
Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.3% per unit staked (our 66.4% × 1.47 − 1).
Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC match preview
Philadelphia Union hosts Toronto FC in a matchup where the home side holds a significant advantage according to the model, with a 66% probability of victory. The expected goals suggest a strong offensive display from Philadelphia Union, projected at 2.78 compared to Toronto FC's 1.22. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring at a 9% probability, indicating a competitive encounter.
Recent form shows Philadelphia Union with mixed results, recording two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last six matches. In contrast, Toronto FC has been more consistent, with four wins, a draw, and a loss in their recent outings. Both teams are expected to score, with a 67% probability, and there is a 76% chance that the match will see over 2.5 goals.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.00
Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC attack and defence ratings
Philadelphia Union
Toronto FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New England Revolution — match page
- New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC
- Chicago Fire v Columbus Crew — match page
- CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats
- DC United vs New York City FC
- FC Cincinnati v Nashville SC — match page
- Inter Miami vs Charlotte — team news & stats
- Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC
Before and after this match
Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Philadelphia Union | 66.4% | 1.51 | +1.0% | 1.47 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.8% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Philadelphia Union win | 49.8% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Philadelphia Union | 66.4% |
| Draw | 18.4% | |
| Toronto FC | 15.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.7% |
| No | 33.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Philadelphia Union win | 49.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 30.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.6% |
| 3-1 | 8.0% | |
| 2-0 | 7.1% |
Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC stats
Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC recent form
| Philadelphia Union |
LDLDWW |
| Toronto FC |
LWLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC season so far
Philadelphia Union record
- They have won 13 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toronto FC record
- They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Toronto FC | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 3-3 |
| 2025-08-09 | Philadelphia Union | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-28 | Toronto FC | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2024-07-13 | Toronto FC | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2024-05-29 | Philadelphia Union | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
| 2023-08-30 | Toronto FC | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 3-1 |
| 2023-04-22 | Philadelphia Union | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer | 4-2 |
| 2022-10-09 | Philadelphia Union | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer | 4-0 |
| 2022-04-16 | Toronto FC | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2021-10-27 | Toronto FC | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.4%, draw 18.8%, away 15.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.45 | 5.00 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.46 | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.42 | 4.90 | 6.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.45 | 5.14 | 6.18 |
| SBO | 1.40 | 4.62 | 5.61 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.60 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .