Chicago Fire
vs
Columbus Crew
Garuda Lions Prediction: Chicago Fire
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Chicago Fire is the favourite, not a value bet.
Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew
| Probability | Chicago Fire | Draw | Columbus Crew |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.8% | 24.5% | 48.7% |
| Market | 48.0% | 23.7% | 28.3% |
| Final | 42.7% | 23.9% | 33.4% |
| Edge | -5.3% | +0.2% | +5.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.7% per unit staked (our 42.7% × 2.07 − 1).
Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew match preview
Chicago Fire will face Columbus Crew in an intriguing matchup, with the model giving Chicago a 43% chance of winning, while Columbus has a 33% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Chicago, occurring at a rate of 7%. Both teams are expected to score, with a 64% likelihood, and the model suggests there is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Recent form shows Chicago Fire with a mixed record of W-D-W-L-L-W, while Columbus Crew has been in strong form, winning five of their last six matches. In their last ten encounters, Columbus has dominated with seven wins against Chicago's single victory and two draws. The expected goals indicate Chicago Fire at 1.35 and Columbus Crew at 1.88, highlighting the competitive nature of this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chicago Fire and Columbus Crew expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.23
Chicago Fire and Columbus Crew attack and defence ratings
Chicago Fire
Columbus Crew
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New England Revolution — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC — team news & stats
- New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC
- CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats
- DC United vs New York City FC
- FC Cincinnati v Nashville SC — match page
- Inter Miami vs Charlotte — team news & stats
- Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC
Before and after this match
Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chicago Fire | 42.7% | 2.34 | -5.3% | 2.07 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.7% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chicago Fire | 42.7% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| Columbus Crew | 33.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.8% |
| No | 36.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chicago Fire win | 12.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.7% | |
| Loss | 73.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 1-2 | 9.4% | |
| 0-2 | 7.0% |
Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew stats
Chicago Fire and Columbus Crew recent form
| Chicago Fire |
WDWLLW |
| Columbus Crew |
WWWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chicago Fire and Columbus Crew season so far
Chicago Fire record
- They have won 16 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 8 penalties (50%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Columbus Crew record
- They have won 13 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Columbus Crew | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Chicago Fire | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-23 | Columbus Crew | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 4-2 |
| 2024-05-19 | Chicago Fire | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer | 1-3 |
| 2024-03-10 | Columbus Crew | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2023-09-20 | Columbus Crew | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 3-0 |
| 2023-06-11 | Chicago Fire | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2022-09-03 | Columbus Crew | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 0-0 |
| 2022-07-10 | Chicago Fire | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer | 2-3 |
| 2021-11-07 | Columbus Crew | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.0%, draw 23.7%, away 28.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.90 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 4.05 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 4.00 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.07 | 3.95 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.93 | 3.90 | 3.32 |
| Pinnacle | 2.00 | 4.06 | 3.38 |
| SBO | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.02 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .