FC Cincinnati
vs
Nashville SC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nashville SC
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.03.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC
| Probability | FC Cincinnati | Draw | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.2% | 24.3% | 56.5% |
| Market | 36.8% | 24.8% | 38.3% |
| Final | 32.4% | 24.7% | 42.9% |
| Edge | -4.4% | -0.1% | +4.5% |
Why Nashville SC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Nashville SC below our published probability: +4.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.52, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +8.1% per unit staked (our 42.9% × 2.52 − 1).
FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC match preview
FC Cincinnati faces Nashville SC in a Major League Soccer matchup with kickoff scheduled for November 7, 2026. According to our model, FC Cincinnati has a 32% chance of winning, while Nashville SC is favored at 43%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Nashville, with both teams expected to score, as indicated by a 56% probability for both teams finding the net.
Recent form shows FC Cincinnati with a mixed record of W-D-W-W-L-L, while Nashville SC has been more consistent, recording W-D-W-D-W-W. Expected goals for FC Cincinnati stand at 1.03, compared to Nashville SC's 1.89. In their last 10 encounters, FC Cincinnati has secured 4 wins, Nashville SC 3 wins, and there have been 3 draws, highlighting a competitive rivalry.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Cincinnati and Nashville SC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.92
FC Cincinnati and Nashville SC attack and defence ratings
FC Cincinnati
Nashville SC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New England Revolution — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC — team news & stats
- New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC
- Chicago Fire v Columbus Crew — match page
- CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats
- DC United vs New York City FC
- Inter Miami vs Charlotte — team news & stats
- Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC
Before and after this match
FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nashville SC | 42.9% | 2.33 | +4.5% | 2.52 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.5% | 2.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cincinnati | 32.4% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Nashville SC | 42.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% |
| No | 44.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nashville SC win | 33.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 43.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.7% |
FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC stats
FC Cincinnati and Nashville SC recent form
| FC Cincinnati |
WDWWLL |
| Nashville SC |
WDWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Cincinnati and Nashville SC season so far
FC Cincinnati record
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nashville SC record
- They have won 22 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Nashville SC | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer | 4-0 |
| 2025-09-13 | FC Cincinnati | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-30 | Nashville SC | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer | 1-2 |
| 2024-09-22 | Nashville SC | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer | 2-2 |
| 2024-05-29 | FC Cincinnati | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer | 0-2 |
| 2023-08-05 | FC Cincinnati | Nashville SC | Leagues Cup | 1-1 |
| 2023-07-15 | FC Cincinnati | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer | 3-1 |
| 2023-03-26 | Nashville SC | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer | 0-1 |
| 2023-02-17 | Nashville SC | FC Cincinnati | Friendlies Clubs | 6-3 |
| 2022-07-23 | FC Cincinnati | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.8%, draw 24.8%, away 38.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.75 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.85 | 2.50 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.80 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.90 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.54 | 3.74 | 2.45 |
| Pinnacle | 2.63 | 3.78 | 2.52 |
| SBO | 2.53 | 3.52 | 2.32 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .